Ash Wednesday is Johan Day and Truck Day

IMAGE: MICHAEL G. BARON FROM FLICKR

I'm currently watching Johan Santana, in a Mets hat and jersey, sandwiched between Mike Francesa and Chris Russo, which is pretty entertaining. Little bit of a back and forth battle between Johan's stock answers and Mike and Dog's prodding, which isn't yielding much.

Basically, what can be drawn from this whole press conference is that Johan is pleased to be here, and is polite, articulate and comfortable. Nothing really groundbreaking came out of anyone's mouth.

Hell of a sight, though, Johan in that jersey. Our generation, the Mets fans in their mid-20's and under, finally have our Seaver, our Doc.

David Wright is clearly very excited, although the last two times I've seen him on camera he looks as if he's just gotten out of a jar of Krisco.

Otherwise, it's truck day, the first real hint of the oncoming baseball season. In under a fortnight pitchers and catchers will report (Johan to Schneider, anyone?) and then it all gets going. Hardly ever have I approached a season with such longing and anticipation. Not since last year, anyhow.

I'll put out my season previews/predictions in the coming weeks, team by team.

Oh, that Giant parade? Got there two hours early, couldn't get in anywhere on the route, walked in circles for four hours. Ugh...

ARIZONA DREAM!

WOW. The New York Football Giants have won the Super Bowl.

No it's not baseball, but this one warrants a quick post.

When I was 8 years old, I watched the Giants play in their first postseason game of my fully conscious lifetime (having been 1 in 1986 and 5 in 1990). I got crazed with excitement as they beat the Minnesota Vikings in the wild card round in a tight one, 17-10, only to watch the 49ers trounce them, 44-3 in the next round. From there on it was further heartbreak, from futile early playoff exits, to losing teams with quarterback controversies featuring Dave Brown and Kent Graham, to the ugliest Super Bowl I've ever seen (a Ravens trouncing, witnessed live by my father and I in Tampa) to this, in the most unlikely of all years. And this time again my dad sat next to me, holding my young son in his arms.

In the first three weeks of the child's life, an unlikely playoff run has occured, the Mets have acquired the best pitcher of our generation, and the Giants have won the Super Bowl. Someone gets ice cream once he's old enough to eat it.

And don't count me in as one of these Patriot haters. As always, after my initial NY allegiance from my father and my birthplace, my grandfather has shared his love of Boston teams with me, so I fully respect these Patriots, have always loved that team, and am proud our Giants beat them.

This is especially fulfilling as I have been an Eli supporter through thick and thin. Eli Manning has arrived, looking like a young Favre against all odds last night.

Now how bout these '08 Mets get out there and upstage the G-men this October...

Let's Get Physical

From Metsblog: The Mets have announced that Johan Santana has passed his physical, meaning that all hurdles have been cleared. Next stop, press conference. Very good.

Some afterthoughts, some of which I put up on Cerrone's site in the last couple days:

There has been a varying amount of fuss surrounding a possible Santana decline in the second half of last year. He finished 2007 at 15-13 (which you can throw out based on the team he played for)giving up 16 hr after the All-Star break and posting a 3.60 in August and a 4.94 in June. Additionally, some scouts have speculated that his velocity has fallen off somewhat.

To begin with, the sample size for Santana’s alleged regression is small enough that it's hard to take it too seriously. Walter Johnson had an off-year in 1921. Seaver lost 9 of his first 11 in 1974 and still won 22 games the next year. Curt Schilling's mid-to-late 20's were hardly spectacular, but his greatest success followed. My point is that when elite pitchers show any signs of normalcy people can overreact, and generally it's unecessary. His track record alone would quell my concern, but coupled with the consensus that he was unhappy last season playing for a bad team that was bound to trade him it all fits together.

Also, while it’s nice that he’s logged more innings than anyone in the last 5 years, part of that is due to the Twins total reliance on him, something the Mets should not be as guilty of, and in turn should provide him with more rest. Not to mention the no-DH, the pitcher’s park, and the tendency for NL pitchers to exit games sooner for PH’s.

When a pitcher posts a 3.33 in the AL, K's 235 batters, and wins 15 games on a weak team and people get worried, that pitcher is something truly special.

On a completely different note, every time I look at this season’s probable lineup, which doesn't have much room for give, I can’t help but think that there’s no good reason for this team not to sign Kevin Mench. He has consistently destroyed lefties, (Career OPS vs. LHP: .979) despite not being of much use otherwise. That would give you this lineup vs. LHP (Each player listed w/ career OPS vs. LHP):
Reyes .710
Castillo .829 IMAGE:COMPUJERAMEY
Wright .962 FROMFLICKR
Beltran .855
Alou .946
Delgado .819
Mench .979
Castro .736
Pitcher

That is a truly formidable lineup against a leftie, lacking a serious weak link, as Reyes' lower OPS does not convey the diversity of his play, and Castro's limited PA's don't fully communicate his level of comfortability with lefties. Delgado is what pops out. His career numbers are not in line with what he did last year against southpaws, which was zilch, but perhaps a contract year and a healed wrist will help that...

Kind of a limb to go out on with the initial idea of signing Kevin Mench... The overall thought here is that any backup OF with a propensity to hit lefties, be it Mench or someone else, to spell Church about 20% of the time, could provide a lethal little lineup.

Oh, that's me in the picture with my new Santana jersey that I had made 5 minutes after the trade was announced. As I left the store with it and looked at it on the street, a guy walked by me and said that he saw on ESPN that Johan failed the physical. He kept with it long enough to get me for a second, and then laughed. Phew.

Signed, Sealed, Delivered. (Just about)

IMAGE: DGWHITHAM FROM FLICKR

Breathe deeply, throw the "Freddie Coupons" BS out the window, and look forward to watching Johan Santana make Larry Jones, Jeff Francoeur, Tex, Ryan Howard, J-Roll, Utley and Pat the Bat look like lost children for the lion's share of the next decade.

For 151 million dollars over 7 years. Obviously it's not our money, and I kinda get a kick out of having the highest paid pitcher in MLB history on the Mets. Makes you feel like a real somebody, you know?

I don't have much more to say today, after spending the last 48 hours browsing and refreshing from Metsblog to ESPN to MLBTradeRumors right back to Metsblog, and everything in between.

And I knew the whole time exactly what would happen: This.

But it's still very sweet. We got an ace. An ace to end all aces.

Of course this would all happen 2 days before Super Bowl Sunday, making us wait for an official announcement until probably Tuesday, although I was surprised to see that Johan will be having a physical tomorrow, rather than Monday.

Otherwise, Pedro Feliciano, or Petey Fleece as I affectionately call him, has been re-upped for a little over a million bucks for this coming season. Poor Pedro, jeez. Just a mil?

The Clock is ticking...

IMAGE: LEO REYNOLDS FROM FLICKR


All of us over here at the Harbor are really hoping that that premature jersey order didn't jinx anything...

These negotiations have very quickly degenerated into another speculation parade. You can see what John Heyman says here, or what Ben Shpigel says here, or what Jayson Stark says here, or if you really want to waste your time, you can read this, by Buster Olney (second entry down).

Thing is, just like every article over the last 2 months that speculated on where Johan would eventually be traded, all of these articles say the same thing, kinda differently.

Point is, in spite of the little man that is always inside of me that yells "the end is near" in relation to all things baseball, this deal will be done. Period.

It's not even worth going over, again, what a massive PR nightmare the Mets would undergo if it fell through. They knew what he wanted before they got him, and they wouldn't have done it if they weren't prepared to pay.

And the fact that the negotiations are ongoing, and probably will be until the very last second, makes complete sense, objectively. Santana, or rather his reps, have established a desired monetary total and a desired total of year. Seeing as they do hold most of the cards, though not all of them, what with Johan's desire to get this done as well, their demand is really the starting point. Omar, or Fred, or whoever the heck is in there, most likely rebutted with an offer as unreasonably low as Santana team's was high. From there, they bicker, compare, laugh, eat, take bathroom breaks, yell and sleep, and with each passing hour each side pulls the other side progressively closer to their desired goal. At any point before about 4pm on Friday, today, if either side says, "that sounds great, we'll take it", they've cheated themselves out of more valuable time to either raise (in the case of Santana's boys) or lower (in the case of the Mets) the opposing side's offer.

So in my mind, that's what's really going down here, and any further speculation on the parts of Olney, Stark, Heyman, etc. is there to get some more browser hits and stir up some noise. I'm pretty sure that neither Omar Minaya nor Peter Greenberg is regularly excusing himself from the negotiation table to go call Buster Olney and let him know what's going on.

It'll all be done today. They'll have a press conference after the Super Bowl, pending a physical.

Cue the weekend Olney blog entry: Unnamed sources have told me that Johan Santana might have a mild but rapidly progressive case of scoliosis...

More Thoughts, Post-Biggest Deal in Met History (Maybe)

IMAGE: MICHAEL 2973 FROM FLICKR

Here's how this deal breaks down for me if I'm a fan of each team that found themselves involved in the circus.

The Met Fan: I am absolutely, indescribably ecstatic. I have just landed the best pitcher my team has seen since Gooden's heyday, or maybe even The Franchise himself (I'm not counting Pedro as his peak was pre-met) without losing a single established Major League player, and without draining my system of its best pitcher and best position player. I have suffered through a long offseason after a longer September, an offseason rife with questions about the dedication of my ownership outside of the dollar bill, and the capability of my front office. Everywhere I saw Matt Wise, Ryan Church, Angel Pagan and Ricardo Rincon; I saw J-Roll beaming again with confidence; I saw Tom Glavine nonchalantly head back to his good 'ol boys in Thrasherville; I saw every personality on any airwave that could sniff a baseball cast my team aside in the Santana race, lest my superstar SS were included; I saw Hank Steinbrenner tamper and bumble his way through my emotions as a fan; And then I saw Freddy Coupons cash in his stash; I see the city of brotherly love stuffing their faces nervously with tastycakes; I see tomahawks going limp; I see the Mets not come in second in a major sweepstakes. There is, from the standpoint of a Met fan, nothing to complain about here. Nothing. On a scale of 1-10, the met fan comes out of this with a 10.

The Yankee Fan: As a Yankee fan in this spot, I would be very much at odds with these droves of fans, who are seemingly happy about Johan and the Mets because of his not going to Boston. It would seem to me that Theo and co. never really had their hearts in it. They tried to steal the girlfriend because they hated the boyfriend, not because they gave a damn about the girl. I would sit, as a Yankee fan, and look at what it is and what it could have been. I have Phil Hughes, who has always been highly touted, but so thoroughly unproven (note this article on former #1 pitching prospects), and I have Melky Cabrera, who may not be more than a Benny Agbayani without all that class. I have Ian Kennedy, whose ceiling does not rise so high, and I have Joba, who we all love in the Bronx, but he has a slight bug problem, and only a couple of months behind him. IN my rotaion I have Wang, who is a strong pitcher and still very young, butwho was shaky last year at times, and has come up miserably in the postseason. I have Hughes. I have a shell of Mike Mussina. I have Joba, unless he is in the 'pen, and if he is not, I have big questions there. Then I have Pettitte, who is a serious question in the wake of the report and his age, followed by a large cast of characters such as Igawa, Kennedy, Karstens, Sanchez, etc. It's ok, but it's not like Boston, or Anaheim, or Detroit, or Cleveland, or even Toronto. Seattle, anyone? I had a chance to get a pitcher who very well may have become the greatest pitcher in Yankee history, and the same GM that brought Randy Johnson, Kevin Brown, Carl Pavano and Jaret Wright would not bring me Johan Santana. My silver lining is that the Red Sox do not have him either, and I still have my kids, who could prove the law of averages wrong and become Santanas in their own rites, but I cannot patronize those other NY fans any longer. I must watch my crosstown rivas who hate me so puff their chests out, justifiably so. If I'm a Yankee fan, after seeing what it took the Mets to get him, I want Cashman out for not doing this, plain and simple.
On a scale of 1-10 the Yankee fan comes out of this with a 3.

EDIT: Upon further review, after reading this Bob Klapisch article from Northjersey.com, I feel even more strongly about this assessment. If what he's saying about the Twins offering to make a deal sans Hughes is true, it is inexcusable not to deal Kennedy, Melky and a third prospect for Santana, though Klapisch himself may not agree with me.

The Red Sox Fan: I see myself as being on the opposite end of the Yankee fan. Surely, I would have greatly benefited from seeing Santana pitch at Fenway, and it may hurt a bit after the media frenzy just post-winter meetings that told me Johan was mine, but I am not in a position where I need the man. I have arguably the best staff in the game as is, and most of it is poised to grow and get better. Lost amongst talk of Beckett and Lester and Buchholz is last winter's crush Dice-K, who may fare much better once adjusted to life in the states, with its smaller strike zones and all. I did not get that major shot to get better, but I am already on top, and my youth is considerably more proven than that of the Yankees. Papelbon is the best at what he does, and my two big young pitchers between them have a no-hitter and a World Series clinching win already. My new CF gave my team such a shot in the legs last fall that it ran all the way through the Rockies, and he's safe without Johan coming. Did I mention that none of these players were the rookie of the year? That's my 2B. I have a team with a cunning young GM that has played the Yankees like a violin in the Johan sweepstakes, ownership that has won more than all our previous owners, and a solid manager who is one of the game's best. My counterparts in the Bronx have drama at the hot corner, a new manager thrust into a mass of egos, one of whom he once served as the backup to, a loudmouthed new owner who is there through nepotism alone, and a GM that has produced the highest payroll in the game year after year with not a recent playoff series win, let alone a ring, to show for it. I don't need Santana, my rivals probably did, and they didn't get him. Oh, and all that money the Yankees spend that makes them so hard to compete with? It comes from a market that just may flip a bit over to the other team in town. I'm just fine.
On a scale of 1 to 10 the Red Sox fan comes out of this with an 8.

The Twins Fan: Well, what can I say? We've pulled rabbits out of hats before in Minny. After all, Santana himself was a mere rule 5 pick. There was the Pierzynski trade, the Viola trade, etc. I didn't get nearly what I thought I may in return for my ace, but I got a potential OF stud and 3 pitchers to add to a mix of many young arms that just have to produce a star or two. Under the radar as it has been, I am getting Liriano back this year, who showed Santana-esque flashes in 2006. I wasn't going to get anything if I kept Johan and he walked next year, my team tried the extensions and failed, and at least I have something in return. Maybe the whole not having to face Johan thing is a tad overblown, seeing as the Twins may not contend at all for a few years, but it helps to not have to watch one of the two biggest haves of my AL live it up with my old buddy. Despite the downsides, I have to have faith in an organization that has pulled out unlikely star after unlikely star. And I have Mauer, Morneau and Cuddyer all tied up. But one day, seriously, could Minnesota just keep one superstar and not watch them dominate somewhere else? Moss, KG, Santana...
On a scale of 1 to 10, the Twins fan comes out with a 4.5

A nice little anecdote: About five minutes after I read the words have acquired, on MetsBlog, God Bless Matt Cerrone, I called up Legends Sporting Goods, a local store here in Bay Ridge that makes customs jerseys, and asked for a #57 Santana Mets Pinstriped Home Jersey. The guy on the other end of the phone very emphatically asked me, "why?". I said, "you didn't hear? We got him!" The man was indeed unaware and started yelling with excitement, thanking me for making his day, and saying he'd be more than happy to make me that jersey. Such are the joys of the connection we experience through fandom.

Oh, this article from braves.com is a must-read for humor's sake. Best headline ever: Santana Deal Brings Parity to NL East. In it, Tom Glavine describes how the Mets' getting Santana "certainly evens the balance in the division". Oh, because the Braves picking up your old junk arm and Mark Kotsay really thrusted them to the top.

EDIT: "WOOOOOO" (Think Ric Flair)

PUT IT IN THE BOOKS: THE METS GET SANTANA!!!

IMAGE: TUNELOVER FROM FLICKR

The New York Metropolitans have acquired Johan Alexander Santana Araque from the Minnesota Twins in exchange for four players who have yet to be officially named, but are reportedly Carlos Gomez, Phil Humber, Deolis Guerra and Kevin Mulvey. (USA TODAY)

The Mets will have a 72 hour window to negotiate with Santana on a contract extension. All along, the word has been that he wants a 7-year deal at about 20 million or more per year. In light of Santana's reported rejection of a Twins offer earlier in the day of a 5-yr, $100 million deal, one would have to assume that this extension will get done. The Mets were probably fully aware of Santana's unwillingness to go 5 years before they pulled the trigger on this deal, which would imply that they have no issue going 6 years on a contract with him. When all is said and done, with so much at stake, one year will not be a deal-breaker; someone will budge. 6 years at 20 mil and a 7th year player option at a lower price, perhaps?

Anyhow, there isn't much you can say to fully express the significance of this deal. Any of the Omar naysayers can cut the word "nay" out of their vocabulary for good, as he has just pulled off a masterful deal. Every move he has made here has been perfect. He has remained calm throughout, not hinting at much in any direction, and in spite of the frenzy surrounding him, he waited and waited and waited until the final right moment and got us the ace of all aces without giving up Jose Reyes, Fernando Martinez, Mike Pelfrey, Oliver Perez or Aaron Heilman. The team as of now is the same 88-win team it was last year, essentially, plus Santana, a healthy(er) Pedro and some improved defense. Subtract a late season collapse, which you hopefully can, and you've got 100 wins. It may be early yet, but now we can really dream.

All I can say is, wow. Wow.

2008 is my year, I'll tell ya. I got my first son, the Giants in the Super Bowl playing the Patriots, and Johan a Met. Might have to start calling the kiddo Johan.

Oh, the Nationals have agreed to terms on a one year deal with Johnny Estrada, "giving them even more options on offense". Cool, dudes.

For Today, Go Giants, Go Pats.