Let 'em Drop Now...

IMAGE: MZMULLERZ FROM FLICKR


I have a lot of respect for Moises Alou. At times last year he was the lynchpin that held the Mets together, at times he was THE guy you wanted up at the end of the game. He is a uniquely experienced and remarkably proficient hitter, and also happens to be my wife's favorite Met, oddly enough, but in spite of all this, I'm not sobbing over his injury.

The timing of it is brilliant. One has to have accepted the inevitability that at some point this season, at least once, Alou would hit the DL, most likely for an extended vacation.

Imagine this happened in June, and in the motions of the season a serviceable replacement wasn't attainable. All of a sudden, after building up a small division lead in early June, a reliable bat in the lineup disappears, Endy Chavez just can't produce runs on an everyday basis, and Philly gets hot. Alou returns in late August, the Phillies have established a 6-game lead, and Alou is never quite back to form. We drop the NL east by a game, again.

Or if it happened after the trade deadline, and there were absolutely no question of outside help not named Sammy Sosa. Maybe F-Mart has had a hammy problem by this point and the team wants to shut him down so as not to risk a recurring injury.

Or maybe whenever he went on his DL trip it wouldn't make that much of a difference, who knows?

The point is that NOW, in Alou's case, there is a lot of room to maneuver. Rather than scrambling to deal midseason or ending up with Endy Chavez playing every day and hurting himself and our lineup in the process, or having to see the name Easley in the 7 spot on the lineup card on a consistent basis, now the F.O. has to face up to the fact that Moises Alou, while still a fine player when he's around, is not a very viable option in left field; not an option that can be counted on, anyhow. It's just not acceptable to me for a big-market contender to go in to a season with a guy saying "this is our left fielder, our #6 hitter" and not have any clue when he'll actually be there. Of course, any player comes with a certain risk of getting hurt, but most don't come with a guarantee. There are so-called "high-risk, high-reward" players, but they are never handed an assumed key role.

Now, management has to come up with some better options in the outfield, whether that means continuing to evaluate Pagan (who knew I'd be saying that, but he's just ripping it up so far in ST) and F-Mart, or acquiring one of the many names floating around, the Thameses and the Nadys and the Murtons of the world. It would seem that the best approach would be picking up one of these players that costs little to nothing to get, and letting them duke it out with whoever wins the F-Mart/Pagan March sweepstakes; give yourself some options. It seems unrealistic that Omar would be able to bring in a real impact OF, even a guy like Nady, via trade. This is the price we paid for Johan.

I just really believe that having a solid LF plan to start the year off that isn't at all contingent on Alou is a better way to operate, and this facilitates that.

Otherwise, the rest of the injuries seem like the sort that would heal in plenty of time, and we all know the deal with Beltran and his percentage points. The two that are somewhat troubling are Delgado and Church. It isn't so far from the realm of possibility that this hip thing could cause a season-long, if not rest of career-long issue for Carlos, and some rumblings from baseball folks has suggested as much. With Church, it's encouraging that he has spent his time still in PSL, and not in a hospital, but there has to remain some level of concern when a concussion is lingering...

Just gotta cross our fingers and hope all pans out at the end of the day, let the kinks be worked out in March, not September, right?

But I kinda hope I'm wrong about not getting Nady back.

Offseason Needs: Outfield

IMAGE: MICHAEL G. BARON FROM FLICKR

Carlos Beltran, Moises Alou, Shawn Green, Lastings Milledge, Carlos Gomez, Marlon Anderson, Damion Easley, Jeff Conine, David Newhan, Ricky Ledee. All of these characters started in the Met outfield this season.

In any given season, one almost has to assume that Carlos Beltran will be shut down for some period of time. Seeing as he is the only sure thing in the OF going into next year, it figures that having a couple of reliable guys around him would really benefit the club. I like Moises Alou, I really do, and I can't say enough about how he performed this year when he was around. There was an endless period of waiting for Alou to get healthy, and this coupled with the Milledge/Green/Gomez shuffle set up a somewhat nebulous team identity. Most folks seem to want Moises back, and that seems likely from the Mets' end as well, but I truthfully don't see that as being a smart move. Is half a year of Alou and half a year of a replacement player going to benefit the team much more than bringing in a decent outsider, who will probably play a better LF?

Then there is right field. For starters, Shawn Green has absolutely no shot here, though again I like him (My season tix are in RF, so I develop a report...). Milledge becomes the likely go-to guy, and I wouldn't have a problem with that if a replacement LF is brought in, but I'm not sure Milledge is still a Met come April. Any deal for a real front-line starter probably involves Milledge, and to me, Carlos Gomez is not ready to be a full-time Major League player.

Consequently, there are two conceivable vacancies in the expansive Shea outfield in 2008. Here are the notable potential free agents:
Bobby Abreu (Team Option, 16mil), Barry Bonds, Andruw Jones, Torii Hunter, Milton Bradley, Aaron Rowand, Mike Cameron, Adam Dunn, Brady Clark, Luis Gonzalez, Darin Erstad, Geoff Jenkins, Corey Patterson, Brad Wilkerson, Rob Mackowiak, Sammy Sosa, Kosuke Fukudome.

Abreu's option getting picked up or not largely will depend on the A-Rod/Posada/Rivera dealings, and Dunn's team option is almost a sure no-go. Jenkins has an option that I'm not sure about, but I could see a Brewers team that close to contention picking it up. You can pretty much rule out Cameron, Bonds and Sosa, and probably a few others based on lack of talent. The interesting names here are Abreu, Andruw, Hunter, Dunn and Jenkins. Then, of course, there's Japanese superstar Kosuke Fukudome.

I don't want anything to do with Andruw, despite reports that the Mets have interest. First off, the idea of moving Beltran in to right and Andruw in center is just ludicrous. The legend of Andruw Jones the center fielder has gone too far at this point. Yes, Andruw was historically good with the glove early in his career, but he has been in a steady decline to the point of being a less than average CF at this point. See Jayson Stark's article from last May. Add his horrible offensive year (.222/.311/.413), the sour taste Met fans have for him, and the immensity of the contract he is surely due, and not signing Andruw Jones is a no-brainer.

I have the same feeling about Fukudome. There's really no way to know exactly how he would perform stateside, and a certain second baseman currently playing in the NLCS leaves a bit of soreness around here when it comes to investing a whole lot into Japanese players. For the record, Kaz Matsui's Japanese numbers (.309/.361/.486, 306 sb's in 9 years) are about as good as, maybe better when you add the sb's and the weak offensive position Matsui plays at, than Fukudome's (.305/.397/.543, 70 sb's in 9 years). Granted, there have been plenty of success stories out of Japan, but as many bust. I don't know that this team could afford the fallout of a Kaz Matsui v. 2.0, complete with a huge contract, after the collapse of this season. If they sign him and he's incredible, great, but I don't see it.

Of the other big names, I like Dunn the best. I like Rowand, and would be happy to see him signed, but Rowand's bat tends to fluctuate year by year, and I'm not sure how much of a shot the Mets have at him based on level interest elsewhere. The same goes for Hunter, who is basically blocked by Beltran, and will be brought in by someone else to be a franchise CF. Abreu is a wild card, because the Yankees could easily sign him, and his reputation, fair or not, as a non-gritty, weak clubhouse player could hurt a lot on a team in need of fire. A lot of people hate Adam "Nice Guy Dave Kingman" Dunn, but I don't see how he hurts. There are plenty of bats on this team that can provide a base hit when you need it, and the power he would provide in the lineup easily makes up for the low average. How many times did the Mets trail by 3+ runs this year, and seem finished if Wright and Beltran didn't do it? I would love a Dunn signing if Alou were gone and a solid glove started in RF.

Essentially, as far as position players go, this team has question marks at four positions: C, 2B, LF, RF. In my eyes, two of these positions need to be filled with impact players, and seeing as this is probably impossible at 2B, and improbable at C, at least one needs to come in the form of an outfielder. Just not Andruw, please, not Andruw.