Trouble.

The weekend series in Colorado was nice, there's no denying that, and overall the Mets as a team are playing a more inspired, motivated brand of baseball since the regime change some 7 days ago.

But right now, the Mets trail baseball's worst team, record-wise, 5-0 in the 5th inning with their ace on the hill.

I'm not gonna sit here and sweat the fact that they're losing to the Mariners; that is what it is, any team can lose to any other team, and will do so frequently over the course of a long season, but the issue is Johan Santana, who is looking a lot shakier than someone deserving the moniker "best pitcher in baseball" should look.

Santana, coming into tonight's game in which he and the Mets are now trailing 5-1, is 7-5, while the team is 9-6 in games he has started. That ain't dominant, and while I don't generally give much credence to a pitcher's win-loss totals, much of that being based on luck, a pitcher of his supposed caliber should be winning more games, period.

His ERA is respectable at 3.04, his WHIP not terrible, due to the low number of walks he issues, at 1.21.

On the flipside, he is allowing nearly a hit per inning, and has just given up his 14th HR of the season, a Grand Slam hit by Felix Hernandez on the first pitch he saw, which oh by the way was the first home run a Mariners pitcher has ever hit. That number of home runs surrendered is good for 9th in the NL, and all but one of the pitchers above him in that category pitch in Philly, Cincinnati, Colorado or Houston. In case that doesn't mean anything to you, those 4 cities' baseball teams play home games in ballparks only slightly larger than the bed on my pickup truck.

I understand his pattern in the past, and am hopeful that it will follow this season as well: he generally comes out of the gate sluggishly, and then goes on an absolute tear for the rest of the season, particularly midsummer. Thing is, the season is nearly, incredibly, half over, and now's about the time that that absolute tear should get going. I though that Keith (or Ron, I'm not 100% sure who said it) nailed it on the head during tonight's broadcast when he talked about the time for theatre; tonight was supposed to be the night that Johan's dominance reared its head, but not quite.

I'm not gonna call for Johan's head here. I don't think he doesn't care, and I don't care how much money he makes. I'm sure anyone would happily accept that contract.

Nor am I gonna start questioning the deal to acquire him. Anyone, anytime, anywhere, makes that deal, end of story.

But if this team has a run in them, he needs to go out and be that guy, that's all there is to it, and Saturday against the Yankees would be a hell of a time to get on a roll.

Hey, if this were fantasy baseball, the Mets would be winning, the runs being unearned.

Now let's go beat the piss out of the Starbucks Mermen the rest of this series.

Phew.

IMAGE: SMSHEPARD FROM FLICKR
So that was that. Two friends and I hopped in to my Jeep and drove out to Denver for games 3 and 4 of the 2007 world series. We returned to New York, however, in a rented Ford with Missouri plates, thanks to an errant spare tire, rim and all, that placed itself conveniently smack dab in the middle of the left lane on I-70 somewhere near Mizzou. Needless to say, I was thrilled with the outcome of the series, despite my admiration for the Troy Tulowitzki chant. At the risk of being unoriginal, I will say that Jonathan Papelbon should have been the MVP of that series, having sucked the thin mountain air out of any Rockies hope that was left after the Game 1 schellacking. Down as I was to see an Amazin-free postseason, I enjoyed the hell out of the Red Sox ride.

But what's done is done, and it's now the offseason, as Scott Boras so politely reminded us somewhere around the 7th inning of Game 4. With regards to A-Rod: COUNT ME IN! I can't begin to fathom why any fan of any team wouldn't want the best player in the game. I couldn't care less about his alleged baggage, with the strippers and what not; I couldn't care less about the slapped glove or the "HA" in Toronto. He hits 45+ home runs regularly. For the love of God how can anyone complain? And the postseason failure? I really don't buy that someone who is capable of putting up the sorts of numbers he has put up year after year, most notably this past year, under a lot of pressure in the biggest market, somehow always has and always will lose it in October. He's still hit .279 in 10 career postseason games with 7 hr. Sometimes, not always, but sometimes the whole can/can't get it done when it counts thing is a crock. Remember Barry Bonds not hitting in the playoffs, and the October he put together in '02? How about John Elway, after all? Or Captain Clutch Jeter and his .179 lds batting average, hitting into double plays like there was no tomorrow? At the end of the day, the playoffs can be so brief, in any major sport, that it can be very hard to judge how clutch a player is or not. (Again, there are some notable exceptions. I think Josh Beckett has shown us as much.)

So let me back off from all the controversy with Mr. Rodriguez for a minute and make a case. For one, see above. He's just an incredible baseball player. Period. Then factor in the PR generated by A-Rod coming to Shea. Admit it or not, it is every Met fan's dream to outright steal the back pages from the Yankees, and a move like this, the imminent arrival of Citi Field and some October ball in Queens, coupled with the current Yankee face-lift that could verge on rebuilding, would go a long way towards doing just that. Next, if an A-Rod jump across town did work out it would make for a hell of a story, considering the treatment he's received from those millions of people from New Jersey and Westchester who call themselves Yankee fans. I truly believe that Met fans would embrace him until he really blew it, and if he made good with New York on his childhood team his rep would be saved. Finally:
Reyes
Wright
A-Rod
Beltran
Even Philly couldn't hang with that.

But would he do it? Would the Mets do it?
As for the former, he'll go wherever on earth the money is, and would probably have some extra incentive to succeed in NYC, on the team he apparently rooted for when he was young.
Would the Mets do it? Why not? I honestly see them as a front-runner in all of this, if not only because they probably have more money to burn than anyone involved, especially because of the potential extra revenue A-Rod could generate. The New York market is essentially unlimited, while other markets can top out. Wright seems amenable to playing wherever management wants him to, even though I'd rather see him stay at 3B and see Alex slotted in elsewhere, such as first. Delgado and a lot of cash for some pitching help, anyone? The Red Sox have a very cohesive team right now, and I don't see a John Henry whose hedge fund is losing money by the day messing with that by taking on another 30 mil a year in one ballplayer fresh off winning a series with the guys he's got. The Cubs don't even truly know who their owner is, and that kind of investment could get dicey. Arte Moreno and Bill Stoneman in Anaheim haven't pulled the trigger on a huge bat to join Vlad yet, so who's to say they'd do it now? I see the Dodgers as the major contender here, and they flat out don't have the kind of money the Mets do, nor the balls that Omar has. Go get him, dammit. Now.

Phinished?

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I honestly didn't think Jeff Francis had it in him. Playoff crap-shoot, as usual. The Rockies ace was basically unhittable, save two bad pitches in the 5th inning. Aaron Rowand and Pat the Bat went back-to-back to lead the inning off, but otherwise Francis only gave up two hits, while striking out eight batters in 6IP. Hamels had a horrific top of the 2nd, throwing 40 pitches while walking in one of the three runs he allowed in the inning, and that was pretty much all she wrote. The back-to-back job provided Philly's only runs, and Matt Holliday chipped on one more run for Colorado with a solo shot in the 8th.
The Colorado 'pen went untouched, and I remain impressed by Clint Hurdle's management of this Colorado team. Every button he pushes seems to work and has seemed to work all year, most notably the promotion of Manny Corpas above Brian Fuentes into the closer's role earlier this year. I really hadn't gotten much of a chance to see Corpas pitch, but he's got it. Bravo for going with the right guy, and not being a slave to roles, a la Joe Borowski.
It may be early, but I really don't see Philly as having a chance in this series. I thought they would win this game one, and having burnt Hamels and handed momentum to a team that really didn't need it, the Candy-Stripin Fightins could be all done quick.
Not that I'm holding a grudge, or anything.
Stat of the game: Phillies 1-4 hitters, 0 for 15, 1BB.

Three Game 1's

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So the glaringly Metless postseason kicks off today at 3:00pm. I'm really having to push myself to get wrapped up in the NL side of the bracket, but that SD-COL game certainly didn't hurt.

Game 1: Rockies at Phillies (C. Hamels v. J. Francis), 3pm ET
I have to pencil this one in for the Candy-Stripers. I don't know which way this series will end up; I can see the Rockies pulling it off, but this is a game Philly has to win and does win. Outside of Hamels, who is coming off of an 8-inning, 13 strikeout shutout last Friday, the Phillies can not rely on anyone in that rotation. Kendrick is the next guy you would go to, but he doesn't go deep into games, and has 121 career MLB innings pitched. Give me Moyer on Sunday (5.1 ip, 0 er), I'll give you Moyer 5 days earlier vs. the Braves (5.1 ip, 6 er). Point is the Fightins need Hamels to win every single time he pitches in the postseason, and as much as he makes me ill, to this point he has done nothing but follow through.
Francis, on the other end, has been a solid and consistent if not dominant "ace" for Colorado. He's certainly a good pitcher, but ideally he's a #2 guy somewhere. He finished the year on a fine note, really not getting touched up at all for the final two months, with one notable exception: September 13, 3.1 IP, 8H, 8ER, 4BB, 2K, in Philadelphia.
These are two offenses on absurd highs, with the talent to back justify every run plated. The only way someone falls off here is by running into lights-out pitching. I take Philly, 6-2 in game one, but I'll take Colorado in 5 for the series.

Game 1: Angels at Red Sox (J. Lackey v. J. Beckett), 6:30pm ET
Lackey's career numbers vs. the Red Sox are so outlandishly bad (1-6, 6.27 ERA), and even worse at Fenway (0-2, 8.38 ERA, that you almost figure that something's gotta give. But the Red Sox are certainly aware of his history, and therein gain major edge before a pitch is thrown. They know Lackey well, they've crushed him, and they have the Cy Young winner on the hill. Playoff butterflies can bury lineups in game 1's, but their history with Lackey can allow Boston's bats to stay loose and let Beckett deal. Red Sox, 8-3 in game one, and they win in 4.

Game 1: Cubs at Diamondbacks (C. Zambrano v. B. Webb), 10pm ET
Rarely has a playoff team been sold so short as the Arizona Diamondbacks are right now. You would think that the Cubs had won 108 games and were facing a lowly wild card. The Cubs have the ESPN.com front page all to themselves, and in about 5 different polls I've seen ranking the playoff teams, the D'Backs are consistently dead last. Is it the new unis? Yes, the D'Backs have a startlingly low team BA for a division winner (.250), and they haven't scored a lot of runs, but they are the NL's only 90-game winner.
As far as tonight goes, I don't trust Carlos Zambrano in a big game anymore than I trust Victor Zambrano, and Brandon Webb can decimate any lineup any time. You keep hearing about the Rockies closing the season winning 13 out of 14, but who won that 14th game? Webb. He has Peavy's numbers without Peavy's propensity to put out lilliputian efforts when it counts. Soriano strikes out swinging. I take the D'Backs in game one, 4-1, and they take the series in 4.

Rock n' Roll All Night

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I had to put my 2 cents in on this one.

What a ballgame at Coors tonight. The Alpha and Omega of the Padres pitching staff both continued to prove that while they put up stellar numbers, neither is worth more than a Tom Glavine in a big spot. Peavy was leaving everything up, giving up 3 runs in the 1st and 6 overall in 6 1/3 IP (He did help his own cause by grounding a base hit up the middle to start a rally that led to an Adrian Gonzalez grand slam). Despite having a 'pen that led the NL in ERA, Bud Black chose to stick with Peavy despite the early runs, and he might want that one back. Padres relief was untouchable from the moment Peavy left until Trevor Hoffman came in, and as usual in a clutch situation let his adrenaline leave his changeup up, and accelerate it to a slow, flat fastball. It takes quite the odd composition to notch 524 career saves, yet constantly cough it up when it matters.

Mike Cameron's early absence from the Padre outfield had a real effect on the game, as Brady Clark failed to make two catches on what ended up being doubles off the wall that let the Rox back in it.

Otherwise, the game really couldn't have lived up to the billing any better, right down to the announcing. Don Orsillo (Red Sox TV Broadcaster) is a fantastic play-by-play man, a pleasant surprise when I was expecting the Braves crew on TBS.

The lead shifted 6-7 times, and we got it all. In the top of the 13th, Scott Hairston hit a 2-run shot off our old friend Jorge Julio, who as usual was overthrowing like a maniac. The way the crowd died in Colorado after that was stunning, and you had to think the game was over and done with, but Trevor had nothing. Who led the bottom of the 13th off with an absolutely roped double to right-center? Kazuo Matsui himself. I have to admit I'm happy for him. Troy Tulowitzki, another in the ever-growing class of elite young shortstops, immediately followed with a double to left-center, and then Matt Holliday (my sentimental MVP vote, anbody but Rollins) tripled off the wall to tie it. The next batter Jamey Carroll lined out to right field, and Michael Barrett actually blocked the plate despite losing the ball, apparently never allowing Matt Holliday to score on the play, though Tim McClelland called him safe. Holliday lay clenched on the ground after the play, having gotten his chin stepped on and banged up, thereby not touching the plate. Despite what I saw as a blown call, you have to assume the Rockies had a good shot of plating another run, and they certainly earned this one.

Phils-Rox will be very compelling. The two hottest teams down the stretch with explosive offenses in two bandboxes. It's like a 5-game football series. Let's Go Rockies. I like their spirit.

What a game.