SEASON PREVIEW PART 3: AL East

IMAGE: WALLYG FROM FLICKR

I've been traveling and not so able to get the gusto up for posting, but I think it's fair to get the last editions of previews out there during the first week of play, right?

So we go now to the venerated AL East, home of the great rivalry that's gotten so high up on the ladder of national awareness you'd forget there were three other teams that had combined for 5 world titles, two of whom could make some noise this year, or not.

Boston Red Sox
Prediction: 1st Place, 94-68
The champs are the champs, and while they haven't added much, they haven't lost much, nor have their foes 200 miles south added much. What they will lose in half a year of Schilling will presumably be made up for with a full year of contributions from youngsters Jon Lester and Clay Buchholz. Plus, the major adjustments demanded of Daisuke Matsuzaka last season cannot be understated, from the actual ball itself, to the strike zone,to the media environment in Boston. He was pretty successful last year, and his raw stuff combined with an increased comfortability in his surroundings would suggest a real breakout. And who knows what could come from Bartolo Colon?
The Bullpen is anchored still by arguably the best current closer in the game in Jonathan Papelbon, and he is backed up by lights out setup man Hideki Okajima, and a nice collection of arms after that.
The lineup is exactly the same, save for Ellsbury's inheritance of CF from the much maligned Coco Crisp. Everyone gets a little older, but the core of the lineup is made up of great, professional hitters, and no one gets on base the way they do, which wears opposing pitchers down and racks up the runs.
What else is scary about Boston? Depth. Their system is loaded with ML-ready talent in case of injury either to come up to the bigs, or to deal off for replacements and filling holes.
I don't see the Red Sox being challenged in the East.
Fantasy Pick: Manny Ramirez. No this is no sleeper, but the way he came on in October combined with an early spring appearance and a contract season just gives me a feeling about #24 being worth more than a 3rd or 4th rounder, which is where he's been going.

New York Yankees
Prediction: 2nd Place, 89-73
I just don't think the Yankees are that good. Look, I'm biased here; I'm a Met fan and a Red Sox fan, let's be clear, but every year for the last decade or so, I've gone into the season with a healthy fear of the Yankees, wanting to pick against them, sometimes doing so, but doing so with great apprehension. This year, I just don't feel that way. They finished in 2nd last year and were knocked out of the playoffs in round 1. The Red Sox are just as good as they were, the Blue Jays may be better, the Rays are certainly on their way, and the rest of the AL is stronger. The Yankees can no longer sit atop a mountainand cruise through.
The rotation appears to be highly suspect. Wang is a nice pitcher, but he's no shutdown ace, and Boston kills him. Pettitte is now 35, and coming off a hectic winter, what with the Mitchell report (who knows, maybe he won't pitch so well without the help...). Mussina has shown all the signs of a pitcher that is flirting with "done", and Hughes and Kennedy remain still simply unproven. Hughes has a lot of hype behind him, but so did Greg Miller, and Kennedy is, to me, unimpressive. Don't get me wrong here, either could prove to be a fine pitcher, but a lot rests on them considering the iffy state of the top of the rotation.
The bullpen is dicey as well; obviously Mariano Rivera will go down as the best there ever was at what he does, and he well should, and though every year we see small signs of wear on him, there's no reason to expect him to be anything but very effective. Joba behind him should excel in the role he shined in last season, but let's not forget that before we crown him king, he only has 24 major league innings on his resume. The problems come after those two: Kyle Farnsworth is just an angry dope with a hard fastball that gets hit very long distances, and LaTroy Hawkins could experience a good deal of adversity jumping from the NL West to the AL East. Joba is probably the key here. If he does what he did last year, this will be a very good 'pen, but if not, or if he has to jump to the rotation, there are issues.
The Yankee lineup is the Yankee lineup. They will score boatloads of runs a lot of the time; that's hardly worth delving into. The only issues arises at 1B, where Giambi is about as mobile as my grandfather, so you're left with Shelley Duncan, Morgan Ensberg and Wilson Betemit, not traditional Yankee lineup material. In my mind it hardly matters, and they should put the best glove out there.
I just can't trust that pitching staff against the other loaded staffs in this division, and I'm not convinced that Joe Girardi isn't a major tool that could drown himself in the NY media. Yanks miss the playoffs.
Fantasy Pick: I'm going unconventional here, and telling you who NOT to pick. Joba Chamberlain. He may be an amazing pitcher, but for now, he's a setup man that's getting drafted in the middle rounds. That's just silly.

Toronto Blue Jays
Prediction: 3rd Place, 84-78
I've been hearing the "here come the Blue Jays" chatter before every season for about 3 years now, and it's translated to a mid-80's win team every time. They are a team with a very nice lineup and a very nice staff in a league that has teams rife with the same things of slightly higher grades.
On the rotation end, they have Halladay and Burnett on top, and collectively they should figure to miss about 3 months at least. When they're in they're fine pitchers, and if they were healthy all year the jays could make a lot of noise, but does anyone remember that mantra in years past, "the Cubs will be great if Wood and Prior can stay healthy!". How'd that go?
Dustin MacGowan is a very good young pitcher, and at times I expect he will be counted on to carry this rotation. He could very well be the Carlos Zambrano to Halladay and Burnett's Wood and Prior. Beyond him there is certainly some depth in Marcum, Litsch, Janssen and Chacin, so the Blue Jays will never have to trot any Brian Lawrences out there. It's a solis staff that can range from elite to average.
The lineup is mostly comprised of aging stars, from Vernon Wells to Frank Thomas, to Lyle Overbay, to Scott Rolen, to Matt stairs, and it goes on. The notable exceptions are Alex Rios, who has potential to be Carlos Beltran with a better average, and 26 year-old 2B Aaron Hill, who very quietly hit .291 with 17 bombs at a weak offensive position. Again, the lineup is similar to the rotation. When all the old guys are healthy and producing, it's a great lineup. When not, it's alright.
The bullpen remains a strong point for the Jays, solely due to the endless depth they have, especially if B.J. Ryan is back consistently this year. There are 9 RP on the Blue Jays 25-man roster, and they're all pitchers you could throw in to almost anyone's bullpen. You'll never get a junk inning from Toronto's staff.
The Jays are probably 2 years away from contention or implosion, depending on how the aging players are replaced. This ain't the year.
Fantasy Pick: Aaron Hill. See Above.

Tampa Bay Rays
Prediction: 4th Place, 75-87
I'm impressed with the team they're building in Tampa, and thus have already given them a 9-win improvement on last season, and think they could even prove us all wrong and finish ahead of Toronto.
At any rate, they'll at last be a fun team to watch, not only for their talent, but for the fact that you no longer have to look at those horrific old Devil Ray jerseys.
Matt Garza's arrival, coupled with a speedy recovery for Scott *ahem* K__mir and continued success form James Shields will give them a very nice 1-2-3, with Edwin Jackson and Andy Sonnanstine rounding out a 5-man unit in Tampa that can finally be called a rotation, probably for the first time in their history.
The lineup is very strong, and full of young upside in B.J. Upton, Carlos Pena, Dioner Navarro, and potentially national consensus #1 prospect Evan Longoria. Carl Crawford is a verifiable star now, if not the superstar he might have been, and good old Cliff Floyd adds some experience to the crowded RF/DH mix. Yes, Rocco Baldelli is already injured.
The bullpen isn't great, but it adds some depth and a new closer in Troy Percival, and should probably be better than last year's edition.
Things are looking up in Tampa, and within a few years they could be a perennial....3rd place team. Yeah, there's those two teams up north with about 500mil to spend between them.
Fantasy Pick: Carlos Pena. A lot of folks don't believe he can repeat what he did last season. I do.

Baltimore Orioles
Prediction: 5th Place, 62-100
Yep, I picked 'em to lose 100, and I'll be glad to see it happen. I don't really know why, but something about the Orioles has always bothered me. I just find them boring, and now no one will notice them enough for them to even qualify as such. Bedard is gone, Tejada is gone, Roberts may be next. Oh, and Steve Trachsel is a key component in their rotation. They added some nice building blocks in the Bedard and Tejada trades, which they needed to do, and consequently have an interesting young OF of Markakis, Adam Jones and Luke Scott, but Markakis is the only star left on this team. It'll be a long year of Yankee and Red Sox hats at Camden Yards.
Fantasy Pick: Markakis, just because he's really the only Oriole worth owning. Take a peek and see who else knows that George Sherrill is a closer in your league...

So that wraps up the AL Preview, leaving you with a predicted playoff bracket that looks like this:

ALDS:
Detroit Tigers, 95-67, Central Champs
defeat
Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim, 91-71, West Champs
3 games to 1

Boston Red Sox, 94-68, East Champs
defeat
Cleveland Indians, 92-70, WC Champs
3 games to 2

ALCS:
Detroit Tigers defeat Boston Red Sox, 4 games to 3

Tigers represent the AL in the World Series against....?

Tense and Entitled

It's pretty clear that none of the common maxims concerning postseason success are accurate. You can say pitching wins championships and look at the Yankees having won 26 of them with arguably only 2-3 pitchers that deserve to be considered in the top 50 all-time. You can say playoff experience wins championships and look at the 2002 Angels, the '97 and '03 Marlins, or the '07 D'Backs, Rockies and Indians. You can say a strong finish in September equates to wins in October, and then look at the '06 Cardinals and Tigers.
I have a couple pretty non-revolutionary theories about postseason success. A) It's relatively random. B) Loose teams win championships.
Right now the Yankees, quite amusingly from my end, find themselves buried in an 0-2 hole as they return to the Bronx, on the brink of solidifying their 7th straight championship-free year. Certainly if any of the four teams currently down 0-2 had a shot at taking three straight, it would be the Yankees. They're going home to face two pitchers that don't deserve to be in the same rotation with the first two they saw, and any game 5 is a toss-up. That said, I doubt it.
I won't say that this Yankee team lacks heart or hustle; statements like these are really throwaways after they've been said by everyone everywhere since Game 7, 2004. What I believe has really bitten this Yankee team in the rear, to a progressively worse degree every year, is the culture that is cultivated and encouraged from the front office, and trickles on down to the fan on the street. I'm not making any personal attack on the Boss, or any complaints about the payroll here. I have a lot of respect for Steinbrenner for spending that money; as a fan I would hope my ownership spends my money on my team.
The real problem, the culture issue in the Bronx, is the tough love fascination with winning, winning, winning. The banter you hear about "true Yankees", the constant scrutiny of a manager that has never failed to bring you to October, the way many Yankee fans are just waiting to pounce on A-Rod before he even steps up to the plate with RISP, all of these are signs indicative of this attitude. Any failure is viewed as Armageddon, completely unacceptable in all ways. There is no team or fanbase that is totally free of these sentiments, but in the Bronx that is their defining trait. World Series titles are tantamount to a heroin fix, leaving the post-2000 Yankees effectively dopesick. That is the real problem with this mindset; it is impossible for any of these Yankee teams to be loose and relaxed in October. While arrogant and entitled, they are not confident, and it is apparent in their play. They are playing tense and tight, trying to keep up the appearance of being strictly business, and at a point that just doesn't work. The Rockies are having fun, as are the Indians and the Diamondbacks. The Red Sox are having the time of their lives. Is there any way Derek Jeter gives you the reaction Manny Ramirez gave you after hitting a walk-off HR last night? The Indians are playing the Yankees with a drive to win, certainly, but that drive is coupled with a clear awareness of the nature of postseason play; they are enjoying themselves and have the feeling that they have nothing to lose. The Yankees entered this series assuming they would win because they are the Yankees, feeling they had dodged a bullet by missing the Angels to play the AL-leading 96 win Indians in their stadium. Subesquently, they encountered unexpected adversity, and since then they have approached every hitter with an urgency, as if they have everything to lose. Perhaps the only Yankee not guilty of this is Andy Pettitte, who has all but missed the majority of the recent down years.
Around all of the other series the same theme has held true. The relaxed team who knows who they are are winning. Arizona was written off despite notching the NL's best record, but they stayed calm and confident and are on the verge of sweeping a Cub team that is full of holes despite their high profile. Philly has played the right way for months, and maybe they allowed that stretch run to get them ahead of themselves.
I have to admit, this week has been a much better week for this Met fan than last week. Here's to Manny Ramirez.

Phinished?

IMAGE: BASEBALL ART FROM FLICKR
I honestly didn't think Jeff Francis had it in him. Playoff crap-shoot, as usual. The Rockies ace was basically unhittable, save two bad pitches in the 5th inning. Aaron Rowand and Pat the Bat went back-to-back to lead the inning off, but otherwise Francis only gave up two hits, while striking out eight batters in 6IP. Hamels had a horrific top of the 2nd, throwing 40 pitches while walking in one of the three runs he allowed in the inning, and that was pretty much all she wrote. The back-to-back job provided Philly's only runs, and Matt Holliday chipped on one more run for Colorado with a solo shot in the 8th.
The Colorado 'pen went untouched, and I remain impressed by Clint Hurdle's management of this Colorado team. Every button he pushes seems to work and has seemed to work all year, most notably the promotion of Manny Corpas above Brian Fuentes into the closer's role earlier this year. I really hadn't gotten much of a chance to see Corpas pitch, but he's got it. Bravo for going with the right guy, and not being a slave to roles, a la Joe Borowski.
It may be early, but I really don't see Philly as having a chance in this series. I thought they would win this game one, and having burnt Hamels and handed momentum to a team that really didn't need it, the Candy-Stripin Fightins could be all done quick.
Not that I'm holding a grudge, or anything.
Stat of the game: Phillies 1-4 hitters, 0 for 15, 1BB.

Three Game 1's

IMAGE: BAUMIES FROM FLICKR

So the glaringly Metless postseason kicks off today at 3:00pm. I'm really having to push myself to get wrapped up in the NL side of the bracket, but that SD-COL game certainly didn't hurt.

Game 1: Rockies at Phillies (C. Hamels v. J. Francis), 3pm ET
I have to pencil this one in for the Candy-Stripers. I don't know which way this series will end up; I can see the Rockies pulling it off, but this is a game Philly has to win and does win. Outside of Hamels, who is coming off of an 8-inning, 13 strikeout shutout last Friday, the Phillies can not rely on anyone in that rotation. Kendrick is the next guy you would go to, but he doesn't go deep into games, and has 121 career MLB innings pitched. Give me Moyer on Sunday (5.1 ip, 0 er), I'll give you Moyer 5 days earlier vs. the Braves (5.1 ip, 6 er). Point is the Fightins need Hamels to win every single time he pitches in the postseason, and as much as he makes me ill, to this point he has done nothing but follow through.
Francis, on the other end, has been a solid and consistent if not dominant "ace" for Colorado. He's certainly a good pitcher, but ideally he's a #2 guy somewhere. He finished the year on a fine note, really not getting touched up at all for the final two months, with one notable exception: September 13, 3.1 IP, 8H, 8ER, 4BB, 2K, in Philadelphia.
These are two offenses on absurd highs, with the talent to back justify every run plated. The only way someone falls off here is by running into lights-out pitching. I take Philly, 6-2 in game one, but I'll take Colorado in 5 for the series.

Game 1: Angels at Red Sox (J. Lackey v. J. Beckett), 6:30pm ET
Lackey's career numbers vs. the Red Sox are so outlandishly bad (1-6, 6.27 ERA), and even worse at Fenway (0-2, 8.38 ERA, that you almost figure that something's gotta give. But the Red Sox are certainly aware of his history, and therein gain major edge before a pitch is thrown. They know Lackey well, they've crushed him, and they have the Cy Young winner on the hill. Playoff butterflies can bury lineups in game 1's, but their history with Lackey can allow Boston's bats to stay loose and let Beckett deal. Red Sox, 8-3 in game one, and they win in 4.

Game 1: Cubs at Diamondbacks (C. Zambrano v. B. Webb), 10pm ET
Rarely has a playoff team been sold so short as the Arizona Diamondbacks are right now. You would think that the Cubs had won 108 games and were facing a lowly wild card. The Cubs have the ESPN.com front page all to themselves, and in about 5 different polls I've seen ranking the playoff teams, the D'Backs are consistently dead last. Is it the new unis? Yes, the D'Backs have a startlingly low team BA for a division winner (.250), and they haven't scored a lot of runs, but they are the NL's only 90-game winner.
As far as tonight goes, I don't trust Carlos Zambrano in a big game anymore than I trust Victor Zambrano, and Brandon Webb can decimate any lineup any time. You keep hearing about the Rockies closing the season winning 13 out of 14, but who won that 14th game? Webb. He has Peavy's numbers without Peavy's propensity to put out lilliputian efforts when it counts. Soriano strikes out swinging. I take the D'Backs in game one, 4-1, and they take the series in 4.