Bring Your Kiddies, Bring Your Wife, Bring 'Em All...

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So after driving cross country, totaling my car and getting stuck in the Show-Me State for 3 days, I came home to some serious family matters, and thus have been absent blogwise for a glaring amount of time. Hopefully, somebody noticed.

Where the hell do I start? It's difficult to navigate through all of the non-action/potential yet improbable action that the hot stove has yielded through early December. You probably gathered what my feelings were with regards to the Milledge debacle based on the last post and the current poll, and I've simultaneously softened and hardened towards the deal. I've softened because time has passed, we have what we have, and one must always try to practice acceptance; I've hardened because since the moment of that deal, all the really juicy wheeling and dealing began, and the Mets, if they were not going to let 'Stings play, are at the very least short one more chip. Mets PR is telling us that there wasn't much interest in Milledge, but you just can't tell me that a 22-yr old who has been touted as a 5-tool player for the last three years (whether those tools work or not...) wouldn't be of some value in a trade, even as a throw-in. Not many teams would refuse to take him. I put a lot of stock in what Peter Gammons says, and he said this (2nd paragraph from bottom).

But again, what's done is done, and I can only hope that Brian Schneider solves the whole staff and that Ryan Church either helps acquire something bigger, or decides to play against everyone else the way he has played against the Mets.

Now we come to the winter meetings madness. It was really wishful thinking on all of our behalves approaching the Santana situation, and it seems as if Omar and Co. knew that. If what appears is going to happen happens, and the Red Sox end up with Johan, you can start talking about a rotation of historic proportions. Remember Pedro and Schilling in 2004? Subtract 14 combined years of age. Oh, and they've still got Curt Schilling, and the other guy, that japanese guy. I recall some sort of mild hubbub surrounding him about a year ago. If this Yankee "deadline" with Santana and the Twins proves to be a reality, Hank Steinbrenner is simply a fool. Not only have they (the Yankees) arbitrarily withdrawn from a negotiation they certainly weren't out of, they've also made things a lot easier for their arch-rivals. Just don't make no sense. Sometimes the whole prospect thing just gets a bit out of hand. You won't give up Hughes, Cabrera and Kennedy for JOHAN SANTANA? Melky Cabrera is not a star, and he never will be a star. He's a little better than Preston Wilson at his prime, but still with less power. Phil Hughes has definitely been pumped up quite a bit for a while now,and showed flashes of real effectiveness but he's already been injured. Ian Kennedy is basically Mike Pelfrey with less hype-time behind him. If I'm a GM, I give up just about anyone for Johan Santana. It's great to hold on to young talent, but when one of the best pitchers the game has ever seen is on the table, let it go. Remember, blue chip prospects can always turn in to a deal for Ryan Church and Brian Schneider. Hank Steinbrenner's misconduct to date is encouraging to me as someone who has a vested interest in seeing the Yankees in peril.

So Johan's out. Next stop? Dan Haren. Simply, I really, really don't see it happening for the Mets. I hold Dan Haren in a very high regard. He's very young, very good, and very consistent, all nice things, but early reports are that Billy Beane is coming out guns blazing as he shops Haren. The word is that it'll take about what it takes to get Santana from the Twins to get Haren from the A's, and there are two reasons that that should leave the Mets out of it. A) They don't have what it takes to get Santana, so they wouldn't have the equivalent of something they don't have. B) Good as Haren is, he's not Johan, and no one should pay that price. Maybe I'm wrong here, maybe Beane backs of a bit, but unless that happens, you can count the Mets out of Haren.

Then there's Erik Bedard. The nice thing about him is that the two biggest suitors for any big name (NYY-BOS) are just about eliminated from the start by sharing the division with the Orioles, as are the Blue Jays, who apparently have expressed interest in him. Common sense, as well as winter meeting rumblings would say Baltimore wouldn't deal him withing the AL East, although Peter Angelos has a tendency to be a complete moron.

Bedard is an option that I find to be very attractive. He brings a little more flash than a Haren, if not a little more risk, and probably at a lower price than the two pitchers mentioned earlier. The Mets are said to have offered Humber, Gomez and Heilman for Bedard already, twice actually, (credit to MLBTraderumors.com)and the O's declined both times. What's encouraging is that if that package is a discussion, maybe Pelfrey/Mulvey instead of Humber is a deal, and I'd be happy with either scenarios. Also, the Dodgers initially appeared to be the front-runner in the Bedard race, and have now backed off significantly. I say go get him if you can.

The next option would have been Dontrelle, but Dave Dombrowski dropped a bomb on all of us by acquiring him and more notably Miguel Cabrera, thereby creating a potential powerhouse in Detroit. I'm not gonna lose any sleep over missing out on Dontrelle Willis, at this point.

A.J. Burnett? Meh. I suppose he's better than a lot of other options, and definitely better than no one, but at what price. He has an opt-out clause in a year, and a bad history of injury. If this drives the price for him down considerably, say a Humber/Pelfrey and a minor-leaguer, I'd go for it, but anything more is too much of a risk to give up a lot of value for a potential albatross is he got injured and then didn't opt out.

I don't see why the Mets don't sign Carlos Silva regardless of anything else, and I have a feeling they will. Can't hurt.

With all of the pitching talk, I'd be curious to see if the Mets were inquiring on any outfielders, via free-agency or trade. Not the priority right now, but another bat that's better than a Church would be nice if the pitching thing can get worked out...

Or maybe nothing happens at all, Pedro pitches 200 innings, Delgado returns to Toronto form, and Ryan Church explodes. Or not.

Go get that Canadian lefty from Baltimore, dammit.

Kazmir Redux?

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Plainly, no. Reports have surfaced that the Rays may be open to shopping the left-handed 6-letter word, Scott Kazmir. Since the exhaustingly bemoaned dealing of Kazmir to Tampa in exchange for Victor Zambrano, the 23 year-old starter has gone 35-29 with a 3.64 era and 617 k's in 570.2 innings pitched on a horrendous team in the strongest offensive division the Majors have seen in some time. (Zambrano, for the record, was not fixed in 15 minutes...) Often I have wondered what things would look like had that deal never been made,and generally the scenarios I envision are pleasant.

But there are distinct reasons that this Met fan is certain that this ain't going down.

For one, I doubt the chips are there to go and get him. The right deal just doesn't seem to exist. There are plenty of deals for mid-range SP that make sense, along the Milledge-Blanton kind of line (Though I wouldn't support that particular deal), as well as absolute top-flite deals that seem feasible and worth it, i.e., the whole damn farm for Johan Santana. Problem with Kazmir is that Pelfrey and Humber probably isn't enough, while Pelfrey, Humber and anyone else of significant value might be too much, and less of a fit to Tampa's needs than what others may offer. I don't see it.

Beyond that, anything that were to be sacrificed in order to get Kazmir would seem almost like further spiritual jabs in the spine from Jim Duquette and Steve Phillips. Kinda like trading in a nice car for a lemon, building another nice car of your own, and trading that one in for the old one. You could have had it all. It just wouldn't feel right.

As in all cases involving the potential acquisitions of elite players by the Mets, if they worked something out magically, I guess I couldn't really complain all that much, but a good deal is hard to find.

Ha. Just as I peer up to my TV before hitting the button to publish this post, there's Duquette's mentor Steve Phillips on ESPN talking about the Dodgers.

Offseason Needs: Starting Pitching

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So I figured I'd incrementally cover the various areas that this team, that is the New York Metropolitans, needs to address. Perhaps the most blatant, and probably the most in need of creativity on the part of Omar Minaya, is starting pitching. So, rather appropriately, we will start with starting pitching. The following are potential/probable free agents for this coming offseason:
Kris Benson, Paul Byrd, Shawn Chacon, Matt Clement, Bartolo Colon, Scott Elarton, Josh Fogg, Casey Fossum, Freddy Garcia, Livan Hernandez, Jason Jennings, John Lieber, Kyle Lohse, Rodrigo Lopez, Wade Miller, Eric Milton, Odalis Perez, Joel Pineiro, Kenny Rogers, Curt Schilling, Carlos Silva, Brett Tomko, Kip Wells, Randy Wolf, Jaret Wright, Victor Zambrano. A few of these players, have team options, but Pineiro and Byrd seem like the only ones with a real shot of getting their options picked up.
Essentially you are left with a bunch of guys who are either below average, injury-prone or very old. No one in this group would fit the title "front-line starter", which ideally is what the Mets would like to acquire. The only two on this list who really stand out at all are Schilling and Kenny Rogers, and either one could easily be resigned by their respective teams. I don't think we'd ever see the Gambler in a Met uniform again. Schilling is old and pretty fragile at this point, but he most likely brings a good deal more to the table than Duque, and with some luck could replace Glavine nicely. I wouldn't be wholly opposed to that option; there is indeed a need to add youth to this team, but there are plenty of other places you can do this, and a 1-2 year deal for a proven veteran to fill one of two rotation vacancies may not hurt. As far as the rest of the list goes, you can totally right of the injury-plagued members. I just can't see Omar envisioning Matt Clement or Bartolo Colon as viable options to solidify a shaky staff. What I could see is bringing in a dependable, league average or so innings eater to replace El Duque in the rotation, sending him to the bullpen; someone along the lines of Carlos Silva, Kyle Lohse or Livan Hernandez. If you write in Pedro, Perez and Maine, and assume some length of injury for one or more, that leaves two spots. The only way a Silva type works here is if there is an additional deal made on the side for a real impact pitcher to fill the other vacant spot. Example rotation: Pedro, Javier Vazquez, Maine, Perez, Carlos Silva, with Pelfrey/Humber as insurance.
Of course, such a scenario is entirely contingent upon bringing that impact guy in. It's tough to speculate on which big-name starters could be made available, but here are some potentials: Johan Santana, C.C. Sabathia, Dan Haren, Dontrelle Willis, Brandon Webb and the entire White Sox rotation. A couple of these are serious stretches as far as availability goes, but you never know. Personally, I would stay the heck away from Willis, as the league seems to figure him out more and more, and he would demand an amount of cash to resign that just wouldn't be worth it. Any Met fan in their right mind would be thrilled to see Santana come to Queens, but what in the world gets him? Milledge, Maine, Humber, plus? Reyes? If through some bizarre act of God Johan becomes available at a price that would not seriously cripple the rest of this team's future, then sure as hell go get him, but I hear too many people saying, "they gotta get Santana", as if it were a forgone conclusion that this were doable within the realm of reason. But hey, Santana, Pedro, Maine, Perez and whoever looks real good. The most likely options would be the usual suspects from the south side of Chicago, and while none of them command the same fear of God that the other names do, there would be a lot of potential for success in the NL. Vazquez would seem to be the most interesting, coming off a year in which he won 15 games, posted a 3.74 ERA and struck out 213 for an abysmal ballclub. One could cite the failed Yankee experiment as a reason not to bring him to NYC, but to be fair the guy got hurt, and the Yankees kinda ran him out of town quickly. He seems like someone who could be gotten for a Gomez, Pelfrey and low-end minor-leaguer, and make a major difference in this rotation. Beyond him you get Mark Buehrle, Jon Garland and Jose Contreras. Any of them could be successful, and gotten at a smaller price. (Consider the El Duque-Contreras element...)
The options really are endless, and with each one arises a new drove of complications. No matter what, there absolutely needs to be a major addition to this rotation in one form or another, because the cross your fingers with the guys you have approach did not work this year.
Kris Benson, anyone? ;)