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IMAGE: PLANET EXPRESS FROM FLICKR
Upon reading about the deal, I called one of my more involved Met fan friends, who I knew was out at a bar and therefore not in range of media, and told him simply, "we got him." His reaction really made me feel bad, I mean deeply, deeply sorry, as his slight drunkenness allowed him to take the full leap into momentarily believing that my statement meant that either Johan Santana was a Met, or that my wife, now less than a week short of her due date, had given birth to our first child. But it was only Angel Pagan.
I'm starting to believe that Santana will be dealt the moment my kid is born. Not to put the two events on the same level in the grand scheme of my life, but both sagas at this point have left me with the same mantra: Come on!
Yes, we have purchased a Mets baby cap and onesie.
The fallout of this Pagan deal is potentially big and potentially negligible.
A) Omar wanted to add another 4th/5th OF type in case of the outfield injury bug that liked to hit if 2/3 of your outfield is Beltran and Alou. The deal is for depth, plain and simple.
B) Omar is going to deal Gomez and/or F-Mart and/or Endy for Johan or another top-flite SP, and has acquired Pagan to fill in the spot(s) left empty by such a deal.
C) The Twins have an irrational love for Angel Pagan.
Of those three options, C is clearly not the case, but I hope B is.
At this point, I just want to get Johan. Period. Only two situations, to me, justify not doing it. The first one being if the Yankees break completely and include everything the Twins want, and the second one being if the Red Sox do the same. In either case, there's really no offer the Mets could make to match, but any other way you spin it, they should get a deal done. Give 'em any of the studs, honestly I don't care. Here's the recipe:
Add of 2-3 of the following: Gomez, F-Mart, Pelf, Humber, Mulvey, Heilman
Add one "ML ready Outfielder" (a twins need): Endy Chavez
Add one ML 2B (something the twins lack): Ruben Gotay
Call Bill Smith
Let deal bake for 7 years/150 mil
If this happens, the Mets add the ace of all aces, hold on to every major player on this team, and have either in-house or FA options to replace minor pegs that have been lost. Just do it. Put it in the books.
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Game 1: Rockies at Phillies (C. Hamels v. J. Francis), 3pm ET
I have to pencil this one in for the Candy-Stripers. I don't know which way this series will end up; I can see the Rockies pulling it off, but this is a game Philly has to win and does win. Outside of Hamels, who is coming off of an 8-inning, 13 strikeout shutout last Friday, the Phillies can not rely on anyone in that rotation. Kendrick is the next guy you would go to, but he doesn't go deep into games, and has 121 career MLB innings pitched. Give me Moyer on Sunday (5.1 ip, 0 er), I'll give you Moyer 5 days earlier vs. the Braves (5.1 ip, 6 er). Point is the Fightins need Hamels to win every single time he pitches in the postseason, and as much as he makes me ill, to this point he has done nothing but follow through.
Francis, on the other end, has been a solid and consistent if not dominant "ace" for Colorado. He's certainly a good pitcher, but ideally he's a #2 guy somewhere. He finished the year on a fine note, really not getting touched up at all for the final two months, with one notable exception: September 13, 3.1 IP, 8H, 8ER, 4BB, 2K, in Philadelphia.
These are two offenses on absurd highs, with the talent to back justify every run plated. The only way someone falls off here is by running into lights-out pitching. I take Philly, 6-2 in game one, but I'll take Colorado in 5 for the series.
Game 1: Angels at Red Sox (J. Lackey v. J. Beckett), 6:30pm ET
Lackey's career numbers vs. the Red Sox are so outlandishly bad (1-6, 6.27 ERA), and even worse at Fenway (0-2, 8.38 ERA, that you almost figure that something's gotta give. But the Red Sox are certainly aware of his history, and therein gain major edge before a pitch is thrown. They know Lackey well, they've crushed him, and they have the Cy Young winner on the hill. Playoff butterflies can bury lineups in game 1's, but their history with Lackey can allow Boston's bats to stay loose and let Beckett deal. Red Sox, 8-3 in game one, and they win in 4.
Game 1: Cubs at Diamondbacks (C. Zambrano v. B. Webb), 10pm ET
Rarely has a playoff team been sold so short as the Arizona Diamondbacks are right now. You would think that the Cubs had won 108 games and were facing a lowly wild card. The Cubs have the ESPN.com front page all to themselves, and in about 5 different polls I've seen ranking the playoff teams, the D'Backs are consistently dead last. Is it the new unis? Yes, the D'Backs have a startlingly low team BA for a division winner (.250), and they haven't scored a lot of runs, but they are the NL's only 90-game winner.
As far as tonight goes, I don't trust Carlos Zambrano in a big game anymore than I trust Victor Zambrano, and Brandon Webb can decimate any lineup any time. You keep hearing about the Rockies closing the season winning 13 out of 14, but who won that 14th game? Webb. He has Peavy's numbers without Peavy's propensity to put out lilliputian efforts when it counts. Soriano strikes out swinging. I take the D'Backs in game one, 4-1, and they take the series in 4.
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