Spring Training Mid-Term Report Card

IMAGE: MICHAEL G. BARON FROM FLICKR


I have elected not to go with the frequent spring updates so far, mostly due to other life obligations, although I fully intend to submit game by game posts come the regular season.

Spring Training is about halfway through, at least the part of Spring Training that I feel you can really put any kind of stock in, that being March. I've grouped all of the players invited to PS Lucie that are worth mentioning into categories according to grade.

HONOR ROLL: Angel Pagan--Hitting to a line of .377/.400/.528, Pagan has been the surprise star of spring so far, and has made an argument for consideration in the absence of Moises Alou.
John Maine--The Maine Man has struck out 14 batters in 13 1/3 innings pitched while only walking 3, and in the mean time dropped his spring ERA to 2.63 during a streak of 10 scoreless innings. Maine's continued growth could give the Mets a historically good 1-2-3 in the rotation. I am higher than high on him, and expect a fantastic year.
The Bullpen--There are a few notable exceptions, but for the most part expected core of the 2008 bullpen has been outstanding. Wagner, Heilman, Feliciano, Wise, Schoenweis, Sanchez, Register and Sosa have combined for 55 innings and only surrendered 9 total earned runs. Of the bunch, Sanchez remains the major question mark, with only 3 IP logged to date as he works towards getting his strength back. All in all, there's a lot of depth to this pen, and it could turn out to be a major point of strength on this team.

A: Fernando Martinez--The jewel of the farm system is hitting .357 in 39 spring AB's, and while plan A would have him tuning his skills in the minors, OF injuries could see him up at the big club this year. Lest I forget, he's racked up a few web gems in the OF.
Robinson Cancel--Though he is 32 years of age, the Puerto Rican catcher only has a small chunk of one season in the majors on his resume. With Castro and Schneider both battling injuries, Cancel's .286/.400/.524 line is encouraging for some insurance.
Raul Casanova--Casanova is another name in the mix for depth at catcher, and has had a solid spring as well, hitting .294 with a homer. Not sure how much stock you can give this, as the 36 year old has never performed well at the major league level.
Argenis Reyes--25 year old OF has spent his career in the Indians farm system to this point, and performed passably well as high as AA. Hitting .481/.481/.703 in 27 spring AB's.
Pedro Martinez--Granted, Pedro has only one start (today) under his belt this spring, but in that start he went 4 innings, striking out 4, only walking 1, and giving up no runs on 4 hits. One of those hits was a broken bat single, and another an infield single. This start coupled with all of the positive reports about the kind of shape he's in gives me a lot of confidence in the greatest pitcher who ever lived, in my eyes.

B:Brady Clark--Let's throw in as many hats as we can in this OF pot, can we? The veteran has played pretty well so far, hitting just over .270 and playing a solid OF.
Johan Santana--The superstar acquisition has 4 games behind him, 2 not so good, 2 very good, at times has looked shaky and at times has looked his dominant self. He's only just really starting to throw now, and until I see him trying to win a game that counts I ain't sweatin'. His K/BB is right where it should be, as is his velocity and stamina. Johan will be Johan.
Nelson Figueroa--We like him over here at the harbor, as he's a Brooklyn native. He's given up 5 ER over 13 1/3 IP and looked very good at times. He'll add some nice insurance for the pitching staff down in AAA.

C: Jose Reyes--Reyes has hit only slightly under .250 so far, but has scattered in a couple XBH and his approach has looked fine. Evaluating spring training for everyday players, especially stars, is pretty tough anyhow, but is hardly relevant in until late March.
David Wright--Ditto. Not hitting much, but he's David Wright.
Mike Pelfrey--Pelf has a not so nice 5.54 ERA this spring, but to be fair 7 of his 8 allowed runs came in one rough start. Otherwise he's looked very good. His role this year is entirely contingent on El Duque.

D/F:Anderson Hernandez--Continues to prove he just can't hit Major League pitching.
Oliver Perez--Looked good a couple days ago in his most recent start, but was knocked around hard in the two starts prior. Right now OP sits with a 7.27 ERA, but he is certainly the sort of pitcher who will go through March growing pains.
Endy Chavez--Only hitting .227 so far. As always, has played well defensively.

I (for Incomplete and Injured): Carlos Delgado--The latest twist in his injury saga came today, when after roping an RBI double the other way Delgado too a broken bat to the forearm and began gushing blood. One would assume this injury isn't too bad, and in the last couple games he's seemed to be rediscovering his stroke, with two opposite field XBH.
Carlos Beltran--If I was advanced enough as a programmer, I'd have a "Beltran's health %" meter on the blog. His legs are starting to get there, though he looked ugly in CF yesterday and hasn't hit much yet.
The Catchers--Schneider has been MIA all spring almost, but is reportedly almost ready and maybe will play Wednesday. Castro hasn't played very well, but has an ongoing hammy problem.
Ryan Church and Marlon Anderson--I put them together because they have both missed significant time due to the same collision. Church has looked up and down when he's been in there, and Marlon just doesn't have enough of a sample size to discuss.
Luis Castillo--Has looked pretty decent in only a couple of games.
Damion Easley--The Sleaze hasn't really hit anything, but only has 16 AB's behind him. Hopefully he's healthy, as the only real insurance to Jose Reyes, who figures to get some more rest this season.
Ruben Gotay--Big Fly Gotay is hitting .309 this spring, but has yet to fully recover from an ankle injury. He's day-to-day.
Moises Alou--Out at least 4-6 weeks, and with Alou, the assumption always leans toward the long side of things. How this OF question will be dealt with has been the subject for a lot of speculation. Internal or External? Trade or Free Agent? My guess is Omar, Willie and Co. wait out the rest of spring, and if no one emerges as a real passable option in LF, they try to make a move then. I'd love to see Nady back, but for what? This was the one caveat with the Santana trade: if any holes open up, there's not much left to deal.

The most telling weeks of spring are the two left to come. We'll see all the regulars play a lot more, the pitchers will go deeper and actually pitch, rather than throw, more, and, knock on wood, many of the injured players will be back in action. To me the biggest story this spring has been how great the bullpen has looked, and in today's game, that is HUGE.

Ho, Hum...

IMAGE: R DIZZLE FROM FLICKR

While it certainly doesn't complete the ideal offseason by any stretch of the imagination, I really like the signing of Matt Wise to a one-year deal

Offseason Needs: Starting Pitching

IMAGE: MAJORLEAGUEWIFFLEBALL_COM FROM FLICKR
So I figured I'd incrementally cover the various areas that this team, that is the New York Metropolitans, needs to address. Perhaps the most blatant, and probably the most in need of creativity on the part of Omar Minaya, is starting pitching. So, rather appropriately, we will start with starting pitching. The following are potential/probable free agents for this coming offseason:
Kris Benson, Paul Byrd, Shawn Chacon, Matt Clement, Bartolo Colon, Scott Elarton, Josh Fogg, Casey Fossum, Freddy Garcia, Livan Hernandez, Jason Jennings, John Lieber, Kyle Lohse, Rodrigo Lopez, Wade Miller, Eric Milton, Odalis Perez, Joel Pineiro, Kenny Rogers, Curt Schilling, Carlos Silva, Brett Tomko, Kip Wells, Randy Wolf, Jaret Wright, Victor Zambrano. A few of these players, have team options, but Pineiro and Byrd seem like the only ones with a real shot of getting their options picked up.
Essentially you are left with a bunch of guys who are either below average, injury-prone or very old. No one in this group would fit the title "front-line starter", which ideally is what the Mets would like to acquire. The only two on this list who really stand out at all are Schilling and Kenny Rogers, and either one could easily be resigned by their respective teams. I don't think we'd ever see the Gambler in a Met uniform again. Schilling is old and pretty fragile at this point, but he most likely brings a good deal more to the table than Duque, and with some luck could replace Glavine nicely. I wouldn't be wholly opposed to that option; there is indeed a need to add youth to this team, but there are plenty of other places you can do this, and a 1-2 year deal for a proven veteran to fill one of two rotation vacancies may not hurt. As far as the rest of the list goes, you can totally right of the injury-plagued members. I just can't see Omar envisioning Matt Clement or Bartolo Colon as viable options to solidify a shaky staff. What I could see is bringing in a dependable, league average or so innings eater to replace El Duque in the rotation, sending him to the bullpen; someone along the lines of Carlos Silva, Kyle Lohse or Livan Hernandez. If you write in Pedro, Perez and Maine, and assume some length of injury for one or more, that leaves two spots. The only way a Silva type works here is if there is an additional deal made on the side for a real impact pitcher to fill the other vacant spot. Example rotation: Pedro, Javier Vazquez, Maine, Perez, Carlos Silva, with Pelfrey/Humber as insurance.
Of course, such a scenario is entirely contingent upon bringing that impact guy in. It's tough to speculate on which big-name starters could be made available, but here are some potentials: Johan Santana, C.C. Sabathia, Dan Haren, Dontrelle Willis, Brandon Webb and the entire White Sox rotation. A couple of these are serious stretches as far as availability goes, but you never know. Personally, I would stay the heck away from Willis, as the league seems to figure him out more and more, and he would demand an amount of cash to resign that just wouldn't be worth it. Any Met fan in their right mind would be thrilled to see Santana come to Queens, but what in the world gets him? Milledge, Maine, Humber, plus? Reyes? If through some bizarre act of God Johan becomes available at a price that would not seriously cripple the rest of this team's future, then sure as hell go get him, but I hear too many people saying, "they gotta get Santana", as if it were a forgone conclusion that this were doable within the realm of reason. But hey, Santana, Pedro, Maine, Perez and whoever looks real good. The most likely options would be the usual suspects from the south side of Chicago, and while none of them command the same fear of God that the other names do, there would be a lot of potential for success in the NL. Vazquez would seem to be the most interesting, coming off a year in which he won 15 games, posted a 3.74 ERA and struck out 213 for an abysmal ballclub. One could cite the failed Yankee experiment as a reason not to bring him to NYC, but to be fair the guy got hurt, and the Yankees kinda ran him out of town quickly. He seems like someone who could be gotten for a Gomez, Pelfrey and low-end minor-leaguer, and make a major difference in this rotation. Beyond him you get Mark Buehrle, Jon Garland and Jose Contreras. Any of them could be successful, and gotten at a smaller price. (Consider the El Duque-Contreras element...)
The options really are endless, and with each one arises a new drove of complications. No matter what, there absolutely needs to be a major addition to this rotation in one form or another, because the cross your fingers with the guys you have approach did not work this year.
Kris Benson, anyone? ;)

Omar's Legacy and Willie's Woes

IMAGE: RICH RENOMERON FROM FLICKR

The state of Willie Randolph's job security is once again the eye of the storm among Met fans following the plunge. My vote remains consistent, and that is not to fire him. Willie is calm and Willie is dedicated, somewhat of an anomaly in the history of the usually neurotic franchise.

I am not in any way denying his shortcomings as a manager. Plainly, he has some difficulty grasping the intricacies of NL baseball, most notably in dealing with pinch-hitters and the bullpen. I don't really take issue with who he uses out of the 'pen or when he uses them, as the pickins have been pretty slim, but rather how he uses them, and how he pinch-hits. Yesterday, for one, I'm not convinced that pinch-hitting Sandy Alomar and his sparkling .143 BA with one man on, thereby limiting Sosa's contribution to 1.2 IP, was a good idea. (If you don't recall, Alomar flied out)Too many times you will see a reliever enter a game to bail someone else out of an inning, only to be pinch-hit for in the bottom of the frame after throwing 1/3 of an inning. I suppose what I'm getting at is that Willie needs to learn to double switch, and he needs to not overvalue certain pinch-hitters (eg. Alomar, Newhan, Franco) when he needs to get what he can out of the 'pen.

Again, I don't question his ability as a motivator and mood-setter. In hindsight there were some things he could have done differently in this regard: slap Reyes around, slap Milledge around, communicate more with the pitching staff, etc. The thing is that he has had so much success in his managerial career, for 11 years as an assistant in the Bronx, and 3 years here, that "if it ain't broke don't fix it" probably came in to play. Up until the last week of the season, no matter what problems he had seen, his team had done nothing but win, and it seems as if the fear of damaging that held him back from making any major statements. I can understand that, right or wrong, and I think it's something that he as a manager can draw from in the future. He will never be fiery; it's not who he is, but let him fail more times than not before you pin him as a loser.

The same kind of delusion can be attributed to Omar. "If it ain't broke...". To me this offseason defines Omar's career. He arrived pre-05 with an overflowing wallet to play with and a store to shop in stocked with big new toys. I can't take away from the success of his moves that year, but to be fair, signing Pedro and Beltran were kind of no-brainers if one had the money to spend. The following offseason he impressed me a little more, but again, he didn't take many gambles. He finagled his way into the right moves. That I give him credit for. Last offseason, he was confident in the assertion that he had built a machine that had perhaps gotten unlucky in losing to the lowly Cards, so he stayed the course and didn't change much; went ahead with a patchwork rotation/pen.

Beyond that, the constant reliance on the proven vet vs. the up-and-comer proved lethal. I have been a defender of Shawn Green's, mostly because I don't see any reason to kill him like people have done, but the insistence on holding Milledge back only stunted the flow of the offense. Gotay was never given a chance to show what he could do pre-Castillo trade as a full-timer, after doing nothing but hit in his small chunk of work. Look around baseball: Pedroia, Buchholz, Ellsbury and Delcarmen in Boston; Joba, Kennedy and Hughes in the Bronx; Tulowitzki in Colorado; Braun and Gallardo in Milwaukee; it goes on. What were Mota, Sele or Brian Lawrence giving you that Humber couldn't have? When your vets aren't bringing you to that next level and you have potential in-house options, you have to give the youth a chance, especially with a cushion in the division like they had up until 2 weeks ago. But Omar and Willie stood pat, going with their guys, trying to ride out the wave. That didn't work, and now major, major moves have to be made to change the culture of a team that took a nosedive.

I don't blame Omar or Willie yet. Omar built the machine that brought the Mets back to relevance and Willie ran it. But now can they fix it?