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Gabe Kapler has completely forgotten that he is a replacement level player, going 3-4 with a homer, a double and 3 RBI's on the days, bringing his average up to .423 with 4 HR's. Maybe he'll start against righties now, too. Both of these losses to Milwaukee are probably wins without Kapler's timely hits.
So how do you rack up 14 hits and still lose a ballgame? You hit in to double plays in 5 CONSECUTIVE INNINGS. I've never seen anything like that, and to be honest, I was very *ahem* unsure about a couple of those out calls at first, particularly the ones on Church and Schneider, but I haven't seen a highlight, so who knows. To be fair, my seats at Shea aren't far from first base, and are in line with the 1B umpire's view, and they looked safe.
That doesn't, however, mean that there is any excuse for hitting ground balls right at infielders with men on first and less than 2 outs in 5 consecutive innings, and can somebody tell me why Brady Clark was running on contact from 3rd with no one out in the bottom of the 8th? If he holds up there, worst-case scenario is men on 2nd and 3rd with 1 out for David Wright, and after Delgado flied out to end that 8th inning rally, Clark's being thrown out at home proved the dagger for the Mets.
Some other bones to pick, though they didn't end up hurting the Mets in the game:
1. Why did Delgado make that throw home in the 1st? If you don't recall the situation, Carlos caught a pop up in foul territory not far from first, and as usual the runner at 3rd bluffed that he was going. Rather than run the ball in, like any highschool player would do, Delgado flings the ball in to Schneider, and it gets away. If Ollie isn't perfectly positioned to back that ball up, a run scores. It's just another example among many in the early days of this season of something far less than fundamental baseball.
2. What in the world was Willie thinking with his pitching changes today? He brought Scott Schoenweis in to start the 7th, (who for whatever reason I've come to like) and Show got the pinch-hitter Joe Dillon out on 2 pitches. Instead of letting him stay in to face Jason Kendall, who hit .242 last year and has hit 4 home runs in the last 3 seasons, who Ned Yost bats 9th, behind the pitcher, Willie goes and gets Joe Smith. Look, you can like Schoenweis or not, but when you're chasing 3 runs, as they were at the time, how do you go to your 3rd reliever in the 7th inning after the guy you have in there has thrown 2 pitches? If it were Ryan Braun up, maybe, but it was Jason Kendall.
So Smith finishes the 7th, giving up 1 unearned run because David Wright can't throw a baseball (even though Delgado got the error officially) and Feliciano comes in to pitch the 7th. Feliciano retires Fielder, and whaddaya know, that's it for Pedro. Wilie wants Heilman after Feliciano has faced 1 batter. Was he tired? Doubtful, as he had only pitched 2 innings all year. Heilman comes in, and the pitcher's spot is due to leadoff the bottom of the inning, so Willie double-switches in Brady Clark, when anyone in their right mind knew that a righty would be coming in to pitch the 8th for Milwaukee; the Brewers have burned their only lefty RP. As it happened Clark got a hit, but I always want Marlon Anderson facing a righty over Clark. So now we're in the 8th inning, and Willie has just used his 5th relief pitcher, now chasing 2 runs, and his hot-hitting 6 hitter in right field, Church, is out of the game for the pitcher's spot.
That all to me just reeked of horrible mismanagement, and while it didn't eventually hurt us today, other than having Anderson bat instead of Church in the 9th, those kind of moves will lose you games. Mind you, I've never been a Willie hater, but I have questioned his ability to handle pitching changes and double switches.
On a brighter note, congrats to David Wright on his 100th career home run in the 1st inning today, his 2nd in as many at-bats.
Off day tomorrow, and we can only hope to beat up on the Nats, hopefully with Reyes back and Duaner Sanchez on board, and come out of this homestand over .500.
IMAGE: JOHNCRIMMINGS FROM FLICKR
Maybe it shoulda rained...
Johan Santana is a hell of a pitcher, make no mistake, but it looks like his propensity to give up the longball isn't out of his system. It really comes with the territory with a pitcher who lives on a changeup: when the change doesn't fool a hitter it can be hit very, very far, and Gabe Kapler knew it was coming in the 7th inning. Funny to think a guy who was managing the Greenville Drive last year can take Santana deep.
To put it in perspective, Johan has a career ERA just over 4 in April and May, and his second half ERA is under 3. He does come from a country that hugs the equator, so one could understand how pitching in NY for the first time in April, hot as it may seem to us, could be initially discomforting. Point is, he'll be fine, and I can't believe that I heard boos as he left the game today. Come on.
Sheets was iffy in the 1st, giving up two runs, but he was simply untouchable after that all the way up until David Wright took him out to left field too little too late.
I felt hopeful when Eric Gagne came in, cuz if anyone can pull a Benitez these days, it's him, but he was very efficient, getting the Mets 1-2-3 in the 9th.
Ollie pitches tomorrow against our old friend Jeff Suppan; initial word is that Reyes will not play, though his MRI was negative.
Manny Ramirez just doubled in two runs off of Moose to give Boston a 3-2 lead in the 6th. Hold on, fellas. Let's go Sox.
The Tigers can't win a game, nearly being no-hit by GAVIN FLOYD, and eventually losing 7-0, dropping to 2-9 on the year.
Smoltz looks as if there never was an injury, as he gave up only 1 run over 6, dropping his ERA to 0.82 in a 10-2 Braves W over the Nats. Jeff Francoeur went 3-5 and hit 2 homers. He has caught fire.
Philly plays later, pitting Cole Hamels against the Cubbies and Ted Lilly at CBP. Hopefully the lefty shuts the Philly big boys down.
Let's Go Mets.
IMAGE: MICHAEL G. BARON FROM FLICKR
My baseball week started on a very sour note, after waiting all April to see the Mets in person, I finally drove out to Turner Field, as I happened to be in Atlanta, last Friday, and what did we get? A rainout. Oh well, I thought, we'll get 'em on Saturday and Sunday. Not so much. 2 swings by Kelly Johnson and Mark Teixeira and it's Tomahawk Chops galore.
Oh well, I again think, I'll be back in Brooklyn tomorrow and on Tuesday we'll turn it around at Shea. And again, not so much with the second part of that arrangement. To be fair, I'll always be grateful to have been at the last opener at Shea, especially with my father close to his birthday, but on the baseball end of things the game was ugly and the second out #27 was recorded all the baseball Seventh-Day Adventists of the message board and talk radio world stuck their heads out and cried, "the end is near!" I'll admit, while the more rational and optimistic end of me was rife with self-reminders of the insignificance of week 1 records, they were accompanied with some foreboding.
And then the bats went off on Wednesday, led by, of course, Angel Pagan, with a good deal of help from the Philly defense, and Pelfrey gave us one of his better Major League showings. Eric Bruntlett is officially my all-time favorite Philly.
Thursday Maine looked very good, surrendering one run over six, and he had enough help to win it, but Heilman indulged himself in that one nasty habit of his, that is giving up bombs, and there were those phightins, right back in it. In extras the bats looked weak, they looked not so much with the clutch, and you were just waiting for the ball to drop with the bullpen.
As a side note, I understand completely why going in to Thursday night, any Met fan would have been sour on Scott Schoenweis, and why they would have booed him as he exited his prior appearance, but to me it seems counterintuitive to sit at a relatively important baseball game into extra innings and boo your own pitcher coming in in the 11th. I mean you want him to succeed, don't you? Boo him after he fails, or boo him if the situation doesn't matter, but in a tie game in the 11th, with 2 men on and Philly's best hitter at the plate, do you really want to shake Schoenweis' already shaky psyche?
And hey, he got the job done.
But the ball did not drop with the bullpen; the only ball that dropped was a line drive off the bat of the shortstop right in between Werth and Jenkins. Reyes stood at 2nd, and WHO ELSE BUT ANGEL PAGAN, 3 for 5 on the night overall, provided the winning base hit. Who knows if Reyes scored? It counted.
Friday, we had a feel-good story that will be hard to top. Brooklyn's own (And this time the player in question actually grew up here, rather than Paul LoDuca who quickly fled to AZ after birth) Nelson Figueroa pitched his ass off if you don't mind me saying, allowing 2 runs over 6, and the bullpen was nearly perfect behind him, Joe Smith allowing the only baserunner on a walk to Rickie Weeks. Delgado contributed to the runs, as he has been doing, Easley gave us one, even Raul Casanova managed to get away from the ladies for a moment to knock one in. And who roped a key, late RBI single? ANGEL F'IN PAGAN! Mets beat the Brewers, the Brooklyn boy shines, Heilman gives up no bombs, Wagner gets save numero uno, there's the first 3-game win streak of the year.
The bad news? Reyes leaves with a hammy strain, said not to be serious. There are many rumblings that perhaps it's more than they're letting on, but methinks something else might be brewing. What has been the single loudest whine about Reyes since last summer? "Someone needs to give him a good talkin' to!" I think Willie might have done just that. Physically he has looked fine, but his approach has stunk. He had the one highlight scoring the run on Thu. night, but otherwise he has swung early and made no good contact. He just hasn't gotten on base, and it seems to be a bad combination of simultaneous cockiness and subtle lack of confidence. That's a long, presumptuous way of saying he's pressing, and I really believe that with a lead in the game and the bullpen set to go according to the late-inning plan, Willie sat Jose down. I think he did this, and I think he figured that with Santana going on Sunday and some unlikely characters producing well, he could really make a point by giving Jose a day on the bench and a Monday off to think. Why not?
And why not bat Castillo 8th once him and Reyes are back? Let Pagan swing the bat, baby. Moises Alou is a distant memory. Here's to a fine discovery in left field. Right now I want no one else up in the big spot. Well, maybe that guy who plays third.
Tomorrow we get to see our Ace live and in person at Shea, and I can't sleep. Oh by the way, he's facing a pitcher in Ben Sheets who hasn't allowed a run this year in 15 1/3 IP. This is a good game waiting to happen. My hope is that Castillo can play tomorrow so he can bat leadoff with Pagan #2, but that may be unlikely. Pick a lineup, any lineup, if Castillo isn't ready.
One more sad note. I have made a business decision to move right in to the belly of the beast, to the town where a Larry Jones jersey is a common sight. As such, this homestand is my Shea Stadium farewell tour, sort of...
Hell, no I'm not giving up my seasons! My job in Atlanta will be right next to the airport and guess what ballpark's right next to LaGuardia? I could get off work at 5 and still see half of 7:00 game!
I'll miss NY, namely Brooklyn, my hometown and the greatest little big city in the world.
Let's Go Johan.
IMAGE: ALPINEINC FROM FLICKR
So it's only April, yeah, and it's only April 1st, but that being said I couldn't have asked for much more to kick-start the 2008 season and completely bury 2007.
Johan had no opening day butterflies, and was simply brilliant, making one mistake to the Hammer, Josh Willingham, after getting squeezed for a walk the previous batter, hence the two runs. Aside from that blemish, Johan gave all the elements of a well-pitched game that you could ask for. He fanned 8 in 7 IP, at one point downing 4 consecutively, but also mixed up his outs, getting fly balls when it was easy to do so and ground balls, less so, when required. He made a couple of solid plays with the glove, and when he got into trouble, he got out of it. For me, the highlight of his performance was the full-count strikeout of Hanley Ramirez, leaving two runners stranded for the Marlins in their only real shot at a rally.
And then we had our rally...
And as an aside, yes, I will loosely refer to the Mets as us, though some folks turn their nose up at it. I will not follow a team day in and day out, on season and off, buy merchandise and buy seats all year, and refer to them as some alien entity with which I have no identifiable connection. They're Us.
But anyhow, when was the last time we had a rally like that? My guess would be August? Everyone got involved, and the big guys led the way. That is how an offense of this caliber is supposed to function, not scattering hits and relying on the longball, but looking to Wright and Reyes and Beltran to get things churning or finish them off, while the lesser hitters just keep it going in between. Again, this was only day one, but it's all we've got, and I can't think of a better way to get it going. Let me reiterate, too, as always, David Wright was huge, and needs to be the Captain of this team,
Pagan, at least for a day, really earned his spot on this roster, while Ruben Gotay was busy striking out in one pinch-hit AB in a braves uni.
Which leads me to the other news of the day. I have been in Atlanta for over a week now for family/business reasons, and am staying through this weekend to see the Mets come in to town, hitting a peak on Sunday with Santana v. Smoltz. But yesterday, I watched the Met game, happily, and then turned the Braves on. Noticing plenty of empty seats, I decided what the heck, why not go, and sure enough, not only was Turner Field NOT sold out on opening NIGHT, I mean you can't even say you had to go to work, but I got in there, complete in a Mets hat, jersey and '86 starter jacket, for FREE. Some guy just gave me his extra ticket as I walked up to go buy one. What I got was more than I expected. I expected to go antagonize some rednecks, which I did, but what I got was an epic game, with the Braves scoring 5 in the 9th to force extra frames, the last two runs plated on an error on a pop-fly, only to be defeated by good 'ol Xavier Nady, the X-man himself, who belted a 3-run game winning shot about 10 feet away from me in the 12th inning, and also went 4 for 7 with 4 RBI on the night. I wanted to get some angry rednecks and maybe see the Braves lose to a sorry team, and what I got was angry, drunk, tired, heartbroken rednecks and a disgrace of a loss for the Braves. All I can say is This.
Did I mention that Flash Gordon got absolutely Mota'd in the 9th down in Philly? 5 runs on 4 hits in the 9th=it's gonna be Mets-Nats on top all year. (Ok, well...) The Phils still hit like they do, but their criminal of an ace, their hero Brett Myers, was very unspectacular, yielding 4 runs over 5 innings to a weak offense. Day One in the NL East could not have been scripted better.
Elsewhere, the spanks' final opening day at the toilet party was ruined by rain, the Injuns beat the ChiSox in a good one in 10 innings after a horrible interference call that prevented a Chicago run scoring in the 9th. Ozzie Guillen, not so much with the happy.
The Cubbies and Brew Crew duked it out for 8 innings without scoring once, as Sheets and Zambrano were both excellent, and then it got real interesting: Milwaukee scored thrice in the top of the 9th, setting the stage for Eric "le drug buddy de Paul LoDuca" Gagne to walk two batters on 9 pitches to start the bottom half of the 9th. Then stepped in the new guy, Kosuke Fukudome, already 2 for 2 with a walk on the day, who proceeded to take Gagne's 3-1 over the Ivy and outta here. That Japanese guy, he's good. But oh wait a minute...Kerry Wood can't hold the tie in the 10th, Brewers win anyhow, oh well.
Rocktober has clearly come to an end, as the Rox hot finish last year was cooled with a 7-1 thrashing from the RedBirds. Eric Bedard was pretty good in his Mariners debut, Webb outdueled Harang for a Dbacks W, and Peavy did the same to Oswalt as the most boring team in the majors that doesn't play in Oakland won their opener and stayed classy in SD.
The scrappy Royals spoiled the Tigers opener with an unlikely rally, Tampa downed the O's, Barry Zito still ain't worth all that cash, and apparently the Twins will not go winless without Johan or Torii Hunter, the latter of whom got a standing O in Minnesota yesterday, then went 0-4 in a Twins win. And that's that.
IMAGE: WALLYG FROM FLICKR
I've been traveling and not so able to get the gusto up for posting, but I think it's fair to get the last editions of previews out there during the first week of play, right?
So we go now to the venerated AL East, home of the great rivalry that's gotten so high up on the ladder of national awareness you'd forget there were three other teams that had combined for 5 world titles, two of whom could make some noise this year, or not.
Boston Red Sox
Prediction: 1st Place, 94-68
The champs are the champs, and while they haven't added much, they haven't lost much, nor have their foes 200 miles south added much. What they will lose in half a year of Schilling will presumably be made up for with a full year of contributions from youngsters Jon Lester and Clay Buchholz. Plus, the major adjustments demanded of Daisuke Matsuzaka last season cannot be understated, from the actual ball itself, to the strike zone,to the media environment in Boston. He was pretty successful last year, and his raw stuff combined with an increased comfortability in his surroundings would suggest a real breakout. And who knows what could come from Bartolo Colon?
The Bullpen is anchored still by arguably the best current closer in the game in Jonathan Papelbon, and he is backed up by lights out setup man Hideki Okajima, and a nice collection of arms after that.
The lineup is exactly the same, save for Ellsbury's inheritance of CF from the much maligned Coco Crisp. Everyone gets a little older, but the core of the lineup is made up of great, professional hitters, and no one gets on base the way they do, which wears opposing pitchers down and racks up the runs.
What else is scary about Boston? Depth. Their system is loaded with ML-ready talent in case of injury either to come up to the bigs, or to deal off for replacements and filling holes.
I don't see the Red Sox being challenged in the East.
Fantasy Pick: Manny Ramirez. No this is no sleeper, but the way he came on in October combined with an early spring appearance and a contract season just gives me a feeling about #24 being worth more than a 3rd or 4th rounder, which is where he's been going.
New York Yankees
Prediction: 2nd Place, 89-73
I just don't think the Yankees are that good. Look, I'm biased here; I'm a Met fan and a Red Sox fan, let's be clear, but every year for the last decade or so, I've gone into the season with a healthy fear of the Yankees, wanting to pick against them, sometimes doing so, but doing so with great apprehension. This year, I just don't feel that way. They finished in 2nd last year and were knocked out of the playoffs in round 1. The Red Sox are just as good as they were, the Blue Jays may be better, the Rays are certainly on their way, and the rest of the AL is stronger. The Yankees can no longer sit atop a mountainand cruise through.
The rotation appears to be highly suspect. Wang is a nice pitcher, but he's no shutdown ace, and Boston kills him. Pettitte is now 35, and coming off a hectic winter, what with the Mitchell report (who knows, maybe he won't pitch so well without the help...). Mussina has shown all the signs of a pitcher that is flirting with "done", and Hughes and Kennedy remain still simply unproven. Hughes has a lot of hype behind him, but so did Greg Miller, and Kennedy is, to me, unimpressive. Don't get me wrong here, either could prove to be a fine pitcher, but a lot rests on them considering the iffy state of the top of the rotation.
The bullpen is dicey as well; obviously Mariano Rivera will go down as the best there ever was at what he does, and he well should, and though every year we see small signs of wear on him, there's no reason to expect him to be anything but very effective. Joba behind him should excel in the role he shined in last season, but let's not forget that before we crown him king, he only has 24 major league innings on his resume. The problems come after those two: Kyle Farnsworth is just an angry dope with a hard fastball that gets hit very long distances, and LaTroy Hawkins could experience a good deal of adversity jumping from the NL West to the AL East. Joba is probably the key here. If he does what he did last year, this will be a very good 'pen, but if not, or if he has to jump to the rotation, there are issues.
The Yankee lineup is the Yankee lineup. They will score boatloads of runs a lot of the time; that's hardly worth delving into. The only issues arises at 1B, where Giambi is about as mobile as my grandfather, so you're left with Shelley Duncan, Morgan Ensberg and Wilson Betemit, not traditional Yankee lineup material. In my mind it hardly matters, and they should put the best glove out there.
I just can't trust that pitching staff against the other loaded staffs in this division, and I'm not convinced that Joe Girardi isn't a major tool that could drown himself in the NY media. Yanks miss the playoffs.
Fantasy Pick: I'm going unconventional here, and telling you who NOT to pick. Joba Chamberlain. He may be an amazing pitcher, but for now, he's a setup man that's getting drafted in the middle rounds. That's just silly.
Toronto Blue Jays
Prediction: 3rd Place, 84-78
I've been hearing the "here come the Blue Jays" chatter before every season for about 3 years now, and it's translated to a mid-80's win team every time. They are a team with a very nice lineup and a very nice staff in a league that has teams rife with the same things of slightly higher grades.
On the rotation end, they have Halladay and Burnett on top, and collectively they should figure to miss about 3 months at least. When they're in they're fine pitchers, and if they were healthy all year the jays could make a lot of noise, but does anyone remember that mantra in years past, "the Cubs will be great if Wood and Prior can stay healthy!". How'd that go?
Dustin MacGowan is a very good young pitcher, and at times I expect he will be counted on to carry this rotation. He could very well be the Carlos Zambrano to Halladay and Burnett's Wood and Prior. Beyond him there is certainly some depth in Marcum, Litsch, Janssen and Chacin, so the Blue Jays will never have to trot any Brian Lawrences out there. It's a solis staff that can range from elite to average.
The lineup is mostly comprised of aging stars, from Vernon Wells to Frank Thomas, to Lyle Overbay, to Scott Rolen, to Matt stairs, and it goes on. The notable exceptions are Alex Rios, who has potential to be Carlos Beltran with a better average, and 26 year-old 2B Aaron Hill, who very quietly hit .291 with 17 bombs at a weak offensive position. Again, the lineup is similar to the rotation. When all the old guys are healthy and producing, it's a great lineup. When not, it's alright.
The bullpen remains a strong point for the Jays, solely due to the endless depth they have, especially if B.J. Ryan is back consistently this year. There are 9 RP on the Blue Jays 25-man roster, and they're all pitchers you could throw in to almost anyone's bullpen. You'll never get a junk inning from Toronto's staff.
The Jays are probably 2 years away from contention or implosion, depending on how the aging players are replaced. This ain't the year.
Fantasy Pick: Aaron Hill. See Above.
Tampa Bay Rays
Prediction: 4th Place, 75-87
I'm impressed with the team they're building in Tampa, and thus have already given them a 9-win improvement on last season, and think they could even prove us all wrong and finish ahead of Toronto.
At any rate, they'll at last be a fun team to watch, not only for their talent, but for the fact that you no longer have to look at those horrific old Devil Ray jerseys.
Matt Garza's arrival, coupled with a speedy recovery for Scott *ahem* K__mir and continued success form James Shields will give them a very nice 1-2-3, with Edwin Jackson and Andy Sonnanstine rounding out a 5-man unit in Tampa that can finally be called a rotation, probably for the first time in their history.
The lineup is very strong, and full of young upside in B.J. Upton, Carlos Pena, Dioner Navarro, and potentially national consensus #1 prospect Evan Longoria. Carl Crawford is a verifiable star now, if not the superstar he might have been, and good old Cliff Floyd adds some experience to the crowded RF/DH mix. Yes, Rocco Baldelli is already injured.
The bullpen isn't great, but it adds some depth and a new closer in Troy Percival, and should probably be better than last year's edition.
Things are looking up in Tampa, and within a few years they could be a perennial....3rd place team. Yeah, there's those two teams up north with about 500mil to spend between them.
Fantasy Pick: Carlos Pena. A lot of folks don't believe he can repeat what he did last season. I do.
Baltimore Orioles
Prediction: 5th Place, 62-100
Yep, I picked 'em to lose 100, and I'll be glad to see it happen. I don't really know why, but something about the Orioles has always bothered me. I just find them boring, and now no one will notice them enough for them to even qualify as such. Bedard is gone, Tejada is gone, Roberts may be next. Oh, and Steve Trachsel is a key component in their rotation. They added some nice building blocks in the Bedard and Tejada trades, which they needed to do, and consequently have an interesting young OF of Markakis, Adam Jones and Luke Scott, but Markakis is the only star left on this team. It'll be a long year of Yankee and Red Sox hats at Camden Yards.
Fantasy Pick: Markakis, just because he's really the only Oriole worth owning. Take a peek and see who else knows that George Sherrill is a closer in your league...
So that wraps up the AL Preview, leaving you with a predicted playoff bracket that looks like this:
ALDS:
Detroit Tigers, 95-67, Central Champs
defeat
Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim, 91-71, West Champs
3 games to 1
Boston Red Sox, 94-68, East Champs
defeat
Cleveland Indians, 92-70, WC Champs
3 games to 2
ALCS:
Detroit Tigers defeat Boston Red Sox, 4 games to 3
Tigers represent the AL in the World Series against....?
IMAGE: MICHAEL G. BARON FROM FLICKR
I have elected not to go with the frequent spring updates so far, mostly due to other life obligations, although I fully intend to submit game by game posts come the regular season.
Spring Training is about halfway through, at least the part of Spring Training that I feel you can really put any kind of stock in, that being March. I've grouped all of the players invited to PS Lucie that are worth mentioning into categories according to grade.
HONOR ROLL: Angel Pagan--Hitting to a line of .377/.400/.528, Pagan has been the surprise star of spring so far, and has made an argument for consideration in the absence of Moises Alou.
John Maine--The Maine Man has struck out 14 batters in 13 1/3 innings pitched while only walking 3, and in the mean time dropped his spring ERA to 2.63 during a streak of 10 scoreless innings. Maine's continued growth could give the Mets a historically good 1-2-3 in the rotation. I am higher than high on him, and expect a fantastic year.
The Bullpen--There are a few notable exceptions, but for the most part expected core of the 2008 bullpen has been outstanding. Wagner, Heilman, Feliciano, Wise, Schoenweis, Sanchez, Register and Sosa have combined for 55 innings and only surrendered 9 total earned runs. Of the bunch, Sanchez remains the major question mark, with only 3 IP logged to date as he works towards getting his strength back. All in all, there's a lot of depth to this pen, and it could turn out to be a major point of strength on this team.
A: Fernando Martinez--The jewel of the farm system is hitting .357 in 39 spring AB's, and while plan A would have him tuning his skills in the minors, OF injuries could see him up at the big club this year. Lest I forget, he's racked up a few web gems in the OF.
Robinson Cancel--Though he is 32 years of age, the Puerto Rican catcher only has a small chunk of one season in the majors on his resume. With Castro and Schneider both battling injuries, Cancel's .286/.400/.524 line is encouraging for some insurance.
Raul Casanova--Casanova is another name in the mix for depth at catcher, and has had a solid spring as well, hitting .294 with a homer. Not sure how much stock you can give this, as the 36 year old has never performed well at the major league level.
Argenis Reyes--25 year old OF has spent his career in the Indians farm system to this point, and performed passably well as high as AA. Hitting .481/.481/.703 in 27 spring AB's.
Pedro Martinez--Granted, Pedro has only one start (today) under his belt this spring, but in that start he went 4 innings, striking out 4, only walking 1, and giving up no runs on 4 hits. One of those hits was a broken bat single, and another an infield single. This start coupled with all of the positive reports about the kind of shape he's in gives me a lot of confidence in the greatest pitcher who ever lived, in my eyes.
B:Brady Clark--Let's throw in as many hats as we can in this OF pot, can we? The veteran has played pretty well so far, hitting just over .270 and playing a solid OF.
Johan Santana--The superstar acquisition has 4 games behind him, 2 not so good, 2 very good, at times has looked shaky and at times has looked his dominant self. He's only just really starting to throw now, and until I see him trying to win a game that counts I ain't sweatin'. His K/BB is right where it should be, as is his velocity and stamina. Johan will be Johan.
Nelson Figueroa--We like him over here at the harbor, as he's a Brooklyn native. He's given up 5 ER over 13 1/3 IP and looked very good at times. He'll add some nice insurance for the pitching staff down in AAA.
C: Jose Reyes--Reyes has hit only slightly under .250 so far, but has scattered in a couple XBH and his approach has looked fine. Evaluating spring training for everyday players, especially stars, is pretty tough anyhow, but is hardly relevant in until late March.
David Wright--Ditto. Not hitting much, but he's David Wright.
Mike Pelfrey--Pelf has a not so nice 5.54 ERA this spring, but to be fair 7 of his 8 allowed runs came in one rough start. Otherwise he's looked very good. His role this year is entirely contingent on El Duque.
D/F:Anderson Hernandez--Continues to prove he just can't hit Major League pitching.
Oliver Perez--Looked good a couple days ago in his most recent start, but was knocked around hard in the two starts prior. Right now OP sits with a 7.27 ERA, but he is certainly the sort of pitcher who will go through March growing pains.
Endy Chavez--Only hitting .227 so far. As always, has played well defensively.
I (for Incomplete and Injured): Carlos Delgado--The latest twist in his injury saga came today, when after roping an RBI double the other way Delgado too a broken bat to the forearm and began gushing blood. One would assume this injury isn't too bad, and in the last couple games he's seemed to be rediscovering his stroke, with two opposite field XBH.
Carlos Beltran--If I was advanced enough as a programmer, I'd have a "Beltran's health %" meter on the blog. His legs are starting to get there, though he looked ugly in CF yesterday and hasn't hit much yet.
The Catchers--Schneider has been MIA all spring almost, but is reportedly almost ready and maybe will play Wednesday. Castro hasn't played very well, but has an ongoing hammy problem.
Ryan Church and Marlon Anderson--I put them together because they have both missed significant time due to the same collision. Church has looked up and down when he's been in there, and Marlon just doesn't have enough of a sample size to discuss.
Luis Castillo--Has looked pretty decent in only a couple of games.
Damion Easley--The Sleaze hasn't really hit anything, but only has 16 AB's behind him. Hopefully he's healthy, as the only real insurance to Jose Reyes, who figures to get some more rest this season.
Ruben Gotay--Big Fly Gotay is hitting .309 this spring, but has yet to fully recover from an ankle injury. He's day-to-day.
Moises Alou--Out at least 4-6 weeks, and with Alou, the assumption always leans toward the long side of things. How this OF question will be dealt with has been the subject for a lot of speculation. Internal or External? Trade or Free Agent? My guess is Omar, Willie and Co. wait out the rest of spring, and if no one emerges as a real passable option in LF, they try to make a move then. I'd love to see Nady back, but for what? This was the one caveat with the Santana trade: if any holes open up, there's not much left to deal.
The most telling weeks of spring are the two left to come. We'll see all the regulars play a lot more, the pitchers will go deeper and actually pitch, rather than throw, more, and, knock on wood, many of the injured players will be back in action. To me the biggest story this spring has been how great the bullpen has looked, and in today's game, that is HUGE.
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The AL Central looks to be one of baseball's best, again, and, personal bias and northeast baseball chauvinism aside, it's probably the most intriguing division around. You have in it a team that went to the classic two seasons ago and added two big stars in the winter, a team that won 96 games last year, two teams stacked with youth, and a team managed by Ozzie Guillen. It'll be a nice ride in the American Midwest.
Detroit Tigers
Prediction: 1st Place, 95-67
This is who I expect to see in the World Series if our Mets were lucky enough to get there. I know, being high on the Tigers is the thing to do these days, but there's good reason for it. The Detroit offense has a chance to be simply prolific, 1-9, adding Miguel Cabrera and Edgar Renteria (who hit .332 last year) to an already explosive lineup. Granderson on top showed that he was the real thing last year, and has MVP-type potential in his future; he should only get better. Lineup aside, the rotation, at least on paper, is better than it was for last year's 88 win campaign. Dontrelle Willis may not be the ace we thought he might be a couple years back, but he definitely has talent and drive, and is a hell of a 3rd/4th starter. More importantly his presence leaves no questions in the rotation with K-Rog (ugh) allegedly healthy. Bonderman and Robertson are coming off down years and I would assume at least marginal improvement. Their bullpen is a question mark, with Joel Zumaya out until summer with another non-baseball-related injury, (Todd Jones has to lose that closer job someday) and the bench is less than spectacular, but this team had some bad luck last year, still won 88 games, and added a lot of talent. That to me pushes the to the next level.
Fantasy Pick: Willis, being drafted very low.
Cleveland Indians
Prediction: 2nd Place, 92-70
The Indians really didn't change much this winter other than losing Kenny Lofton again, and signing the former hot-dog eating champion out of Japan. They came within a game of the World Series, and had three shots at it, but this wasn't enough to make them go out and add talent. Sizemore is an elite young CF, though he strikes out too much, VMart is probably the best hitting catcher since Mikey P in his prime, and Pronk is Pronk. Ryan Garko emerged as a force last season, and Jhonny Peralta came back after a terrible '06. The rotation is anchored by a 1-2 that could possibly hang with the likes of Johan-Pedro with Sabathia and Carmona, and is solid through 5. I kinda wonder if Cliff Lee could reappear as a good pitcher? The bullpen is probably a little better with the Japanese reinforcement and a full year of Rafael Perez, and the bench suffers a bit with Nixon/Lofton gone, but this is essentially the same team as last year. So why would they finish worse? They might have played a few games over their head last year, and Detroit just got a lot better.
Fantasy Pick: Ryan Garko
Chicago White Sox
Prediction: 3rd Place, 76-86
This is the kind of team that could prove me horribly wrong and make this division even heavier, or it could win even less than 76 games. They are another AL central team with a fine lineup, although getting an base has been a problem. Enter Nick Swisher, who could break out and hit 40 bombs in US Cellular Field, or could have had his heyday and start having his OPS catch up with his AVG. I expect him to be a nice addition. Orlando Cabrera is the other major newcomer, displacing Juan Uribe, having come over in exchange for Jon Garland. Cabrera is a great glove at SS, and a nice enough bat, but his offense has shown some decline. The big guys stay in the heart of the order, Thome, Dye, Konerko, though none of them are getting any younger. Expect some decline for all three. Third base is a real controversy, with Josh Fields slated to start and Joe Crede likely to be traded, although there are rumblings of the two sharing the corners with Konerko being sent off in a larger deal. The rotation looks like a potential problem. Buehrle, despite the no-no, is not a true ace, and Contreras is about 77. I do like Javier Vasquez a lot; he has gone from being one of the most overrated SP's in the game to being one of the most underrated, having quietly won 15 games with a 3.74 ERA in a tough division while K'ing 213 batters. Trouble is, John Danks and Gavin Floyd also figure into the SP mix, and they would have trouble making many MLB rosters. Bullpen is just OK. Bobby Jenks is fairly solid in the 9th, but it's old and iffy after him. The big boys in the Central should beat up on them, so their additions equal only 4 more wins than last year: 76.
Fantasy Pick: Javier Vasquez
Kansas City Royals
Prediction: 4th Place, 74-88
Give Dayton Moore and the team with the nicest ballpark anywhere a couple more years, and you might finally have a good squad again. The Royals added the obligatory mediocre former pseudo-stars in Jose Guillen and Miguel Olivo, but also shedded the a bunch of the same sort, though KC should be sad to see longtime Royal masher Mike Sweeney, one of my favorite players, go. David DeJesus, Mark Teahan, Billy Butler and Alex Gordon are all very young and have very high ceilings on the offensive side, and the pitching staff houses promising starters Zach Greinke, Kyle Davies, *ahem* Brian Bannister *ahem*, and closer Joakim Soria. Without delving too far in to the rest of the team, that's a long, impressive list of prospects, and you'd expect some of them will turn in to big stars. I say more power to 'em. They got nice hats, too.
Fantasy Pick: Billy Butler, Brian Bannister
Minnesota Twins
Prediction: 5th Place, 70-92
They lost this pitcher guy.
Fantasy Pick: Scott Baker
In Mets news, it's just more spring W's and more injuries. Maybe if the Mets sign 162 players and kill one of them every day from Apr-Oct, they'll go undefeated...
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I have a lot of respect for Moises Alou. At times last year he was the lynchpin that held the Mets together, at times he was THE guy you wanted up at the end of the game. He is a uniquely experienced and remarkably proficient hitter, and also happens to be my wife's favorite Met, oddly enough, but in spite of all this, I'm not sobbing over his injury.
The timing of it is brilliant. One has to have accepted the inevitability that at some point this season, at least once, Alou would hit the DL, most likely for an extended vacation.
Imagine this happened in June, and in the motions of the season a serviceable replacement wasn't attainable. All of a sudden, after building up a small division lead in early June, a reliable bat in the lineup disappears, Endy Chavez just can't produce runs on an everyday basis, and Philly gets hot. Alou returns in late August, the Phillies have established a 6-game lead, and Alou is never quite back to form. We drop the NL east by a game, again.
Or if it happened after the trade deadline, and there were absolutely no question of outside help not named Sammy Sosa. Maybe F-Mart has had a hammy problem by this point and the team wants to shut him down so as not to risk a recurring injury.
Or maybe whenever he went on his DL trip it wouldn't make that much of a difference, who knows?
The point is that NOW, in Alou's case, there is a lot of room to maneuver. Rather than scrambling to deal midseason or ending up with Endy Chavez playing every day and hurting himself and our lineup in the process, or having to see the name Easley in the 7 spot on the lineup card on a consistent basis, now the F.O. has to face up to the fact that Moises Alou, while still a fine player when he's around, is not a very viable option in left field; not an option that can be counted on, anyhow. It's just not acceptable to me for a big-market contender to go in to a season with a guy saying "this is our left fielder, our #6 hitter" and not have any clue when he'll actually be there. Of course, any player comes with a certain risk of getting hurt, but most don't come with a guarantee. There are so-called "high-risk, high-reward" players, but they are never handed an assumed key role.
Now, management has to come up with some better options in the outfield, whether that means continuing to evaluate Pagan (who knew I'd be saying that, but he's just ripping it up so far in ST) and F-Mart, or acquiring one of the many names floating around, the Thameses and the Nadys and the Murtons of the world. It would seem that the best approach would be picking up one of these players that costs little to nothing to get, and letting them duke it out with whoever wins the F-Mart/Pagan March sweepstakes; give yourself some options. It seems unrealistic that Omar would be able to bring in a real impact OF, even a guy like Nady, via trade. This is the price we paid for Johan.
I just really believe that having a solid LF plan to start the year off that isn't at all contingent on Alou is a better way to operate, and this facilitates that.
Otherwise, the rest of the injuries seem like the sort that would heal in plenty of time, and we all know the deal with Beltran and his percentage points. The two that are somewhat troubling are Delgado and Church. It isn't so far from the realm of possibility that this hip thing could cause a season-long, if not rest of career-long issue for Carlos, and some rumblings from baseball folks has suggested as much. With Church, it's encouraging that he has spent his time still in PSL, and not in a hospital, but there has to remain some level of concern when a concussion is lingering...
Just gotta cross our fingers and hope all pans out at the end of the day, let the kinks be worked out in March, not September, right?
But I kinda hope I'm wrong about not getting Nady back.
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